A Data-driven Dynamic Rating Forecast Method and Application for Power Transformer Long-term Planning

This paper presents a data-driven method for producing annual continuous dynamic rating of power transformers to serve the long-term planning purpose. Historically, research works on dynamic rating have been focused on real-time/near-future system operations. There has been a lack of research for long-term planning oriented applications. Currently, most utility companies still rely on static rating numbers when planning power transformers for the next few years. In response, this paper proposes a novel and comprehensive method to analyze the past 5-year temperature, loading and load composition data of existing power transformers in a planning region. Based on such data and the forecasted area load composition, a future power transformer loading profile can be constructed by using Gaussian Mixture Model. Then according to IEEE std. C57.91-2011, a power transformer thermal aging model can be established to incorporate future loading and temperature profiles. As a result, annual continuous dynamic rating profiles under different temperature scenarios can be determined. The profiles can reflect the long-term thermal overloading risk in a much more realistic and granular way, which can significantly improve the accuracy of power transformer planning. A real utility application example in Canada has been presented to demonstrate the practicality and usefulness of this method.