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A systematic search for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone (24$^\circ$S-31$^\circ$S) turns up empty

T0 review · 3 major / 6 minor · reviewed 2026-08-10 · deepseek-v4-flash

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Pith's one-line read After 3.5 years of continuous seismic monitoring with two independent detection methods and manual verification, the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone shows no evidence of tectonic tremor or low-frequency earthquakes, placing…

desk verdict A careful, well-hedged null result for tremor/LFEs in northern Chile; the main gap is the lack of synthetic sensitivity tests, but the paper is worth reviewing and publishing after revisions. read the letter →

arxiv 2501.16934 v1 pith:QTSO5DZZ submitted 2025-01-28 physics.geo-ph

Jannes Münchmeyer , William B. Frank , Sophie Giffard-Roisin , David Marsan , Anne Socquet This is my paper · ORCID
classification physics.geo-ph
keywords tectonictremorlow-frequencyearthquakesAtacamaseismicgapslowslipeventsenvelopecorrelationdeeplearningseismologysubductionzonenulldetection
verification ladder T0 review T1 audit T2 compute T3 formal

The pith

A machine-rendered reading of the paper's core claim, the machinery that carries it, and where it could break.

The reading

This paper is a systematic attempt to find tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone, where slow slip events are known to occur but no such seismic companions have ever been confirmed. Over 3.5 years of dense seismic recordings, the authors ran two independent searches — envelope correlation for tremor and a deep learning picker for low-frequency earthquakes — and then filtered every candidate through clustering, matched filtering, and manual waveform inspection. After all that, no candidate remained that could be a real tremor or LFE. The result matters because it sets concrete upper bounds on how large or how frequent such signals would have to be to escape detection, and it sharpens the question of whether some subduction zones produce slow slip without the usual seismic chatter.

What carries the argument

The argument is carried by two independent detection pipelines. For tremor, the envelope-correlation method of Wech (2021) cross-correlates smoothed 1–8 Hz envelopes across stations in 5-minute windows, locates coherent sources by grid search, and keeps only DBScan clusters of at least five detections to exploit tremor's burst-like recurrence. For LFEs, a deep-learning phase picker trained on Cascadia, Nankai, Guerrero and the San Andreas fault produces P/S picks that are associated and located, then template matching groups repeated waveforms into families that must exceed 100 detections. The final arbiter is manual inspection of each surviving family against three criteria: no anthropogenic time-of-day pattern, two clear phase arrivals, and burst-like (not bimodal or Poissonian) recurrence. Running identical pipelines on Cascadia and Nankai is the control that shows the methods can find tremor and LFEs where they are known to exist.

What would settle it

A single well-located repeating LFE family (at least 100 template matches, P and S arrivals, burst-like recurrence, no daytime-only pattern) at 30–40 km depth on the plate interface anywhere in 24°S–31°S, or a coherent envelope-correlation tremor burst located on the interface during the next deep SSE cycle, would directly falsify the absence claim.

Watch

Extended reading notes

Core claim

The central claim is that the Atacama segment, despite hosting shallow and deep slow slip events, shows no detectable tectonic tremor or LFE activity during November 2020 to February 2024. Roughly 430,000 envelope-correlation detections and 18,640 deep-learning LFE candidates were winnowed by DBScan clustering, template matching, and three diagnostic manual criteria (time-of-day, phase arrivals, recurrence pattern); every surviving family was either an earthquake, mine blast, airgun shot, teleseismic arrival, or an unexplained shallow seafloor signal. The same workflow run on short windows in Cascadia and Nankai recovered known tremors and LFEs with their characteristic migration patterns, so the authors argue the null result is not a methodological failure. They therefore conclude that tremors and LFEs in northern Chile either have moment rates lower than about $10^{12}$–$10^{13}$ Nm/s, recur on timescales longer than the 3.5-year window, behave differently in waveform or clustering than those in Cascadia or Nankai, or are entirely absent — with cold subduction and limited fluid delivery as a plausible cause.

Load-bearing premise

The entire null result rests on the assumption that any tremor or LFE in northern Chile would resemble the ones in Cascadia and Nankai: strong enough to rise above noise on the onshore network, burst-like enough to survive clustering, repeating at least 100 times per family, and with waveforms a cross-region deep-learning picker would recognize.

Editorial extensions

If this is right

  • If the null result holds, Atacama becomes a documented case of a subduction zone with slow slip events but no detectable tremor or LFE activity, so slow slip there is not always accompanied by these seismic signals.
  • The same workflows recovered tremor and LFE in Cascadia and Nankai, validating the sensitivity of the methods and making a methodological failure an unlikely explanation.
  • The detection threshold implies that any undetected deep tremor or LFE in the region must have moment rate below roughly $10^{12}$–$10^{13}$ Nm/s, or recur less often than once in 3.5 years, or lack the burst and repeat structure assumed.
  • The previous single-day tremor report around the Copiapó ridge is reinterpreted as likely non-tectonic, since reprocessing places the sources too deep or off-interface and 3.5 years of denser data show nothing similar.
  • The results provide an observational constraint for models of tremor generation, fluid availability, and temperature-dependent slow slip, particularly the idea that cold subduction suppresses tremor.

Reading between the lines

Editorial extensions of the paper, not claims the author makes directly.

  • A natural extension implied by the thermal hypothesis is that running the identical workflow on a warmer segment of the Chilean margin should recover tremors and LFEs if temperature controls tremor genesis; a null result there would weaken that explanation.
  • The unexplained 20-minute seafloor signal near 27.5°S resembles a turbidity current; correlating its occurrence with river discharge, sediment supply, or seafloor imagery would identify the source and remove one of the few surviving non-tectonic candidates.
  • Because the study window sits between the 2020 and roughly 2025 deep SSE recurrences, an instrumented continuation through the next SSE cycle could distinguish 'absent' from 'not during this window,' which the current data cannot do.
  • If tremor and LFE moment rate scales with SSE slip rate as proposed generally, the low moment rates of Atacama SSEs ($6\times10^{11}$–$3\times10^{12}$ Nm/s) predict signals near or below the network's detection floor; borehole or array data could test this scaling by lowering the noise floor.
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Editorial analysis

A structured set of objections, weighed in public.

Desk editor's note, referee report, and a circularity audit.

Referee Report

3 major / 6 minor

Summary. The paper reports a systematic 3.5-year search (November 2020 to February 2024) for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) in the Atacama segment (24–31°S) of the Chilean subduction zone, using up to 193 onshore stations. Tremor is searched with the envelope-correlation method of Wech (2021) followed by DBScan clustering; LFEs are searched with a deep-learning phase picker followed by association, location, template matching, and family clustering. All surviving tremor clusters (562) and LFE template families (581) are manually inspected against three diagnostic criteria (time-of-day signature, number of phase arrivals, recurrence pattern). No candidate satisfies all LFE criteria and no tremor cluster survives verification; the non-tectonic signals that remain are attributed to mine blasting, teleseismic P-wave arrivals, an offshore active-seismic experiment, and an emergent 20-minute seafloor signal of unresolved origin. The identical workflow applied to one-month windows in Cascadia and Nankai recovers abundant tremor and LFE activity with characteristic migration patterns and interface-consistent depths. The authors conclude that tremors and LFEs in Northern Chile are either of lower moment rate than in other regions, have substantially longer recurrence rates, or are absent altogether, potentially because of the cold subduction environment.

Significance. This is a carefully executed, well-hedged null result with genuine value. If correct, the finding that a dense 3.5-year search in a region hosting documented shallow and deep SSEs recovers no tremor or LFE signals constrains the SSE-tremor relationship and the thermal and fluid controls on tremorgenesis, adding to the small set of cases where SSEs may occur without detectable seismic slow-slip signatures. The paper's strengths are real: two orthogonal detection methods with complementary failure modes; complete manual triage of all 562 surviving tremor clusters and 581 LFE template families; explicit positive controls in Cascadia and Nankai that recover known activity with correct migration patterns and interface-consistent depths; an openly inventoried list of the assumptions on which the null result rests (Section 4.3); and a useful reanalysis of the only prior tremor report for the region (Pastén-Araya et al., 2022), whose reprocessed locations are not interface-compatible.

major comments (3)
  1. [Sections 4.1, 4.4; Appendices A1–A2] This comment is complete above; please disregard this duplicate field.
  2. [Abstract and Section 4.4] This comment is complete above; please disregard this duplicate field.
  3. [Section 3.3 and Appendix A2] This comment is complete above; please disregard this duplicate field.
minor comments (6)
  1. [Figure 9 caption and Section 3.2] The word 'histrograms' should be 'histograms', and the recurrence-panel y-axis units (log interevent time in seconds?) should be stated in the caption.
  2. [Appendix A2] The word 'expierience' should be 'experience'.
  3. [Section 2.1] The sentences 'This suggest that seismic swarms' and 'accompanied by seismic warms' contain typos; they should read 'This suggests...' and '...seismic swarms'.
  4. [Section 3.2] The claim that the detection-rate dynamic range is lower than in Münchmeyer, Giffard-Roisin, et al. (2024) is qualitative; reporting a quantitative metric (for example, percentile ratios of daily counts on days with similar station counts) would improve reproducibility.
  5. [Open Research] The availability of the deep-learning LFE model weights and the LFE workflow scripts is not stated; the envelope-correlation code availability is given, but the LFE side is the less standard component and should be documented.
  6. [Section 4.4] The sentence 'we expect to see deep tremors with moment rates above 10^12 Nm/s to 10^13 Nm/s' should cross-reference the derivation in Section 4.1 and state explicitly that the bound rests on a noise-level comparison rather than on recovered detections.

Circularity Check

0 steps flagged · score 2.0 of 10

No significant circularity: the null result is an empirical non-detection, and the main self-cited tool (the deep-learning LFE picker) is revalidated in this paper against known positive controls.

full rationale

The paper's central claim is a null detection after a systematic search, not a quantity derived by fitting. The tremor leg uses the independent envelope-correlation method of Wech (2021), and both legs are applied to Cascadia and Nankai as positive controls within this paper, recovering known tremor and LFE activity (Section 3.3). The LFE leg does rely on the authors' own deep-learning picker (Münchmeyer, Giffard-Roisin, et al., 2024) and the authors' 3D velocity model (Münchmeyer et al., 2025), which are self-citations; however, the picker's cross-region transferability was previously demonstrated and is here re-tested on reference regions, so the citation carries independent evidence rather than reducing the conclusion to its input. The inference that Chilean tremor/LFE are either weaker, less recurrent, or absent is explicitly hedged in Section 4.3, which acknowledges that isolated tremors are removed by DBScan by design, that LFE families with fewer than 100 repeats are rejected, and that different signal character could be missed; the paper also gives quantitative sensitivity estimates (Section 4.1) from noise and station geometry rather than from a fitted model. These are limitations on the strength of the null result, not circular steps: no equation or fitted parameter is reused as a prediction. The reanalysis of Pastén-Araya et al. (2022) is a relocation with an independent 3D model, not a renaming of the prior result. Overall, the derivation is self-contained and the weaknesses are acknowledged, so circularity is minimal.

Assumptions & free parameters 5 free parameters · 5 assumptions · 0 invented entities

The central claim rests on detection thresholds chosen by hand and on transferability assumptions about tremor/LFE characteristics from Cascadia and Nankai to northern Chile. No new physical entities are introduced. The thresholds are not fitted to produce the null result, but they set the sensitivity envelope, and the paper's own limitations section (4.3) identifies the most fragile of them.

free parameters (5)
  • Envelope correlation threshold = 0.7
    Station-pair correlation threshold for tremor detection (Appendix A.1); hand-chosen from Wech (2021), controls false positives and sensitivity.
  • DBScan minimum cluster size / epsilon = 5 events / 20 km (1 h = 20 km)
    Clustering parameters for tremor candidates (Appendix A.1); require burst-like recurrence, discard isolated tremors by design.
  • Template matching detection threshold = 8 x MAD
    Threshold for matched-filter detections of LFE families (Appendix A.2); chosen to limit false positives.
  • Minimum LFE family detections = 100
    Families with fewer than 100 matched detections are not manually inspected (Appendix A.2); assumes LFEs have high repeat rates.
  • Picking probability thresholds = 0.1 / 0.15 / 0.15 (Cascadia/Chile/Nankai)
    Thresholds for the deep learning P/S picker (Appendix A.2); chosen from prior model development, vary by region.
assumptions (5)
  • domain assumption Tremor/LFE waveforms and recurrence statistics in northern Chile, if present, resemble those in training regions (burst-like, repetitive, 1-8 Hz band).
    Needed for the envelope correlation and deep learning detectors to work; explicitly discussed in Section 4.3 and Appendix A.2.
  • domain assumption Envelope coherence across stations is comparable between Chile and the reference regions.
    Invoked in Section 4.1 to rule out path/site effects reducing tremor detectability; supported by tomography and low station residuals cited there.
  • domain assumption The deep learning picker trained on Cascadia, Guerrero, Nankai and San Andreas transfers to Chile.
    A2 states transferability was shown for reference regions and similar evidence exists for earthquake pickers; used to justify LFE search.
  • domain assumption Tremors and LFEs, if present, occur on or near the plate interface.
    Used to interpret locations and to focus depth ranges; stated in Section 4.3 and used to dismiss signals located above the interface.
  • domain assumption The 3D velocity model (Münchmeyer et al., 2025) is accurate enough for envelope-correlation and NonLinLoc locations.
    Used for grid search and LFE location; also for reprocessing Pastén-Araya detections; no independent validation in this paper.

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Cite this review

Pith. "Pith review of A systematic search for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone (24$^\circ$S-31$^\circ$S) turns up empty." pith.science (2026). https://pith.science/paper/QTSO5DZZ

@misc{pith2026250116934,
  author       = {Pith},
  title        = {Pith review of: A systematic search for tectonic tremor and low-frequency earthquakes in the Atacama segment of the Chilean subduction zone (24$^\circ$S-31$^\circ$S) turns up empty},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://pith.science/paper/QTSO5DZZ}},
  note         = {Machine review of arXiv:2501.16934}
}
read the original abstract

Subduction megathrusts release stress not only seismically through earthquakes, but also through creep and transient slow deformation, called slow slip events (SSEs). Understanding the interplay between fast and slow slip is essential for illuminating the deformation processes on the subduction interface. The Chilean subduction margin, while one of the most seismically active regions worldwide, has few reports of SSEs. Furthermore, there are no comprehensive reports of tectonic tremors or low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), seismic signals typically accompanying SSEs, tracking deformation at small spatial and temporal scales. Here, we perform a systematic search for tectonic tremors and LFEs in the Atacama segment in Northern Chile, a region hosting both shallow and deep SSEs. Using dense seismic networks, we investigate 3.5 years between November 2020 and February 2024. Due to the network geometry, we focus on deep tremor and LFEs. We apply two orthogonal methods, envelope correlation for tremor search and deep learning detection for LFEs, to generate initial catalogs. To validate the potential detections, we use clustering, matched filtering, heuristics, and extensive manual inspection. While our initial search provides numerous candidates, after verification, we find no evidence for tectonic tremor or LFEs in the region. In contrast, our approaches successfully recover tremors and LFEs in two reference regions outside Chile with known tremor and LFE activity. Our observations show that tremors and LFEs in Northern Chile are either of lower moment rate than in other regions, have substantially longer recurrence rates, or are absent altogether, potentially due to the cold subduction.

Figures

Figures reproduced from arXiv: 2501.16934 by the authors.

Figure 1
Figure 1. Overview map of the region visualizing the tectonic setting, the past slow slip ac￾tivity, and the seismic station coverage. Stations are colored according to their seismic network, using upward triangles for permanent stations and downward triangles for temporary stations. Within the Y6 network, stations deployed for four months in 2023 are indicated separately. A small number of additional stations of the C1, CX, … view at source ↗
Figure 2
Figure 2. The three features used for LFE classification with typical examples. a-b Distri￾bution of events over time of day, identifying anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources. c-e Wave type and number of identifiable phase arrivals. Note that for the actual classification, we are basing our assessment on all available stations and not a single station. The three colors show the three components with a vertical offset f… view at source ↗
Figure 3
Figure 3. Tremor candidates in Northern Chile detected using envelope correlation. a De￾tected tremor candidates excluding detections matching cataloged earthquakes. b All tremor candidates contained in DBScan clusters with at least 5 members. c Same as b but without tremor candidates in shallow (< 10 km) and deep (> 95 km) clusters. We note that none of the candidates have been identified as an actual tectonic tremor. In all… view at source ↗
Figures from the paper (9 more)
Figure 4
Figure 4. Figure 4: Vertical-component waveforms from signals identified as potential tremors. All waveforms have been bandpass-filtered between 1 and 10 Hz, the typical tremor frequency band. Labels on the top right indicate the SEED identifier of the trace. Note that we classified these…
Figure 5
Figure 5. Figure 5: Emergent 20 min signal on 2023-06-23, likely related to a marine or seafloor pro￾cess. The inferred location is not compatible with plate boundary faulting like a tremor. Each panel shows the vertical component waveforms for a station between 26.5◦S and 28.5◦S for the …
Figure 6
Figure 6. Figure 6: LFE candidates in Chile detected using the deep learning pipeline (M¨unchmeyer, Giffard-Roisin, et al., 2024). Each dot represents an individual LFE candidate colored according to the depth. There is a small number of detections at larger depths and outside the selecte…
Figure 7
Figure 7. Figure 7: Temporal behaviour of the LFE candidates detected in Chile. a In black, daily LFE count throughout the study period. In orange, daily number of active seismic stations. b Zoom-in of panel a around the South Sandwich EQ sequence. c Hourly LFE candidate count by time of …
Figure 8
Figure 8. Figure 8: Summary of the classification results of LFE candidate families after template matching. Each panel visualises one feature. Each dot marks one template, i.e., one LFE candi￾date from the initial deep learning detections. The colors indicate whether the template fits th…
Figure 9
Figure 9. Figure 9: Waveforms (top), recurrence plots (center) and time of day histograms (bottom) of potential LFE families. Each column represents one family, with a label on top. The waveform plots show ZNE components (top to bottom). Note that we only show a selected station per famil…
Figure 10
Figure 10. Figure 10: Tremor and LFE detections in Cascadia and Nankai, colored according to the time within the sequence. Tremors detections have been filtered using DBScan (Wech, 2021). For tremor locations, we add a small scatter (Gaussian with standard deviation 0.03◦ ) to reduce overl…
Figure 11
Figure 11. Figure 11: Slab geometries (Hayes et al., 2018), station coverage, and tremor detections in Cascadia, Nankai and Northern Chile. We indicate stations with white triangles. The median dis￾tance to the fifth closest station is 60 km in Cascadia, 37 km in Japan, and 27 km in Chile.…
Figure 12
Figure 12. Figure 12: Comparison of the background noise across the three regions. At low frequencies, the noise levels are similar in Chile and Nankai and higher in Cascadia. At higher frequencies, the noise is lowest in Nankai and at a similar, higher level for Cascadia and Chile. For ea…

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Reviewed August 10, 2026 · model on record in the stance chip above.