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The impact of a nation-wide lockdown on COVID-19 transmissibility in Italy

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arxiv 2004.12338 v1 pith:R7QNL2VJ submitted 2020-04-26 q-bio.PE

Giorgio Guzzetta , Flavia Riccardo , Valentina Marziano , Piero Poletti , Filippo Trentini , Antonino Bella , Xanthi Andrianou , Martina Del Manso
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Massimo Fabiani Stefania Bellino Stefano Boros Alberto Mateo Urdiales Maria Fenicia Vescio Andrea Piccioli COVID-19 working group Silvio Brusaferro Giovanni Rezza Patrizio Pezzotti Marco Ajelli Stefano Merler
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keywords italylockdowncovid-19numberbelowcountriescurtaildays
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On March 10, 2020, Italy imposed a national lockdown to curtail the spread of COVID-19. Here we estimate that, fourteen days after the implementation of the strategy, the net reproduction number has dropped below the epidemic threshold - estimated range 0.4-0.7. Our findings provide a timeline of the effectiveness of the implemented lockdown, which is relevant for a large number of countries that followed Italy in enforcing similar measures.

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