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Log-ergodicity: A New Concept for Modeling Financial Markets

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arxiv 2211.15637 v3 pith:U2TFB5M2 submitted 2022-11-28 math.PR

classification math.PR
keywords behaviorfinancialprocessesergodicergodicitymarketmarketspositive
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Although financial models violate ergodicity in general, observing the ergodic behavior in the markets is not rare. Policymakers and market participants control the market behavior in critical and emergency states, which leads to some degree of ergodicity as their actions are intentional. In this paper, we define a parametric operator that acts on the space of positive stochastic processes, transforming a class of positive stochastic processes into mean-ergodic processes. With this mechanism, we extract the data regarding the ergodic behavior hidden in the financial model, apply it to mathematical finance, and establish a novel method for pricing contingent claims. We provide some empirical examples and compare the results with existing ones to demonstrate the efficacy of this new approach.

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Cited by 1 Pith paper

Reviewed papers in the Pith corpus that reference this work. Sorted by Pith novelty score. Full citation record

  1. Log-Ergodic Dynamics in Stochastic Monetary Velocity: Theoretical Insights and Economic Implications

    q-fin.GN 2024-11 reject novelty 4.0 of 10

    The paper argues that U.S. money velocity is partially ergodic and that a fitted log-ergodic model forecasts it with lower RMSE and MAE than a constant-velocity baseline.

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