Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation

As of 17 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 24 of 24 outbound references and 0 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2604.06820.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2604.06820 v2

Coverage vector

measured 24 of 24 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.429575Z

measured 24 of 24 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-16T06:30:59.297886+00:00

measured 0 of 0 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: cited_works

Reference resolution

24 of 24 outbound references displayed

verified exact0
verified fuzzy0
unresolved24
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier0
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation 3eec9ee9-0376-4ba7-a456-a802ff108b32 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 1

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.382786Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4396317e-f831-4df4-a20e-30e86d33a5ca · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.389550Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6ed5fad5-28f9-452f-b6f7-2766011d74e4 · outbound

This paper cites extra carefully.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation extra carefully

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.443305Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation cc1eb7aa-b233-4da3-8ba5-82367d201978 · outbound

This paper cites Unclear / mixed.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unclear / mixed

Reference 4

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.672393Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c1c27606-f3d7-4a41-84a9-77977346f73a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 5

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.698917Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fb4bba1f-edad-4150-aa73-a1cfa2ec1733 · outbound

This paper cites You will read one text and answer a few questions about your first impression as a reader.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation You will read one text and answer a few questions about your first impression as a reader

Reference 6

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.743031Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4d945b41-d0ce-45a7-b473-1aca46d1e3ad · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 10

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.497640Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 30ce7cec-ffc5-4dae-bd32-27df8e679ed9 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 11

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.549942Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6cc05b62-0b09-45bb-97cd-d002f5fb3b65 · outbound

This paper cites Estimates in low-support countries are noisy, so the figure is descriptive rather than population-level.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Estimates in low-support countries are noisy, so the figure is descriptive rather than population-level

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.574850Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation aea522ef-e083-4d37-abc5-61a6e1b7eae4 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 16

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.785935Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4f89532f-8380-4367-aa8e-99a3442c9ffa · outbound

This paper cites credibility.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation credibility

Reference 17

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.830553Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 1983aed4-e9cd-4a2b-ab9e-3a65238e7986 · outbound

This paper cites Topic: <topic>. Substantially use the provided factual packet.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Topic: <topic>. Substantially use the provided factual packet

Reference 18

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.878667Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7927fb4a-a535-49bc-a98d-1151ed02248a · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 19

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.987924Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 000841d1-92cc-4399-93d8-02b4fc1899ca · outbound

This paper cites Writing style or tactics (how the text is written):.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Writing style or tactics (how the text is written):

Reference 20

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.074253Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 75967bc8-ebbc-4773-8c02-90707915b410 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 21

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.163545Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6e7a321f-7161-4542-b5f6-eaa28ff207ba · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Unresolved cited work

Reference 22

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.252980Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 6b7adfba-4781-4b29-bd0e-08c561f8504a · outbound

This paper cites most people.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation most people

Reference 23

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.350625Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation ec91f71e-457e-4b9a-8862-edd7aab6bbf3 · outbound

This paper cites has_purpose_score.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation has_purpose_score

Reference 24

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:15.429575Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 76598d8d-7016-4cee-b3ed-c0dedfe43caa · outbound

This paper cites fake news.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation fake news

Reference 2018

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.323943Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 075008a0-a81e-4254-a73f-1526a1d059b2 · outbound

This paper cites Andrew M.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Andrew M

Reference 2019

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.235269Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 4f3109cb-f3dc-4534-b661-e4d1e8064232 · outbound

This paper cites Gordon Pennycook, Jonathon McPhetres, Yunhao Zhang, Jackson G.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Gordon Pennycook, Jonathon McPhetres, Yunhao Zhang, Jackson G

Reference 2021

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.311972Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation e8f81603-48ee-4473-b31e-fcd22e3986c0 · outbound

This paper cites Journal of Experimental Political Science, 9(1):104– 117.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Journal of Experimental Political Science, 9(1):104– 117

Reference 2022

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.252769Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 61971c55-dcd4-4f1f-b5b5-c3e1590bee09 · outbound

This paper cites Nir Grinberg, Kenneth Joseph, Lisa Friedland, Briony Swire-Thompson, and David Lazer.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Nir Grinberg, Kenneth Joseph, Lisa Friedland, Briony Swire-Thompson, and David Lazer

Reference 2023

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.193319Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation fd665b9e-3caf-42e8-9c30-80b18758ab71 · outbound

This paper cites Fabrizio Gilardi, Meysam Alizadeh, and Maël Kubli.

When Direct Prediction Fails: Evidence from LLM-Based Misinformation Risk Evaluation Fabrizio Gilardi, Meysam Alizadeh, and Maël Kubli

Reference 2024

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-02T16:41:14.084195Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Pith citing papers

No inbound Pith citation observations are available.