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A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans

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arxiv 2508.18553 v1 pith:YC5H2HQ3 submitted 2025-08-25 q-bio.OT

Anna Singley , Carrie Manore , Hannah Highlander , Ben McMahon This is my paper · ORCID
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keywords modelriskstatesstochasticstresssuicideveteransacross
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We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment.

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    physics.soc-ph 2026-07 conditional novelty 6.0 of 10

    Van Gogh’s letters and paintings show a weak death-sentiment–fractal correlation and coordinated variance rises before the 1888 ear incident, interpreted as critical slowing down.

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