Paper Citation Record · LEDGER

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts

As of 22 August 2026, this Paper Citation Record lists 18 of 18 outbound references and 2 inbound Pith citation observations for arXiv:2502.14870.

A citation records a reference. It does not transfer a finding from one paper to another.

pith.paper-citation-record.v1
2502.14870 v1

Coverage vector

measured 18 of 18 reference resolution

Typed states for the displayed outbound observations.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.928591Z

measured 20 of 20 standing notices

One-hop event checks from named stored sources.

Source: scholarly_work_events, retraction_status_cache, observed 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00

measured 2 of 2 inbound itemization

Pith citing papers itemized under the disclosed page cap.

Source: paper_references, paper_reference_links, observed 2026-08-07T00:23:54.862503Z

measured 0 of 1 external citation measurements

A source-named dated measurement, never combined with another source.

Source: arxiv_reference, observed 2026-05-21T12:24:10.761440Z

Reference resolution

18 of 18 outbound references displayed

verified exact2
verified fuzzy8
unresolved7
parse uncertain0
malformed identifier1
metadata mismatch0

External citation measurements

No source-named external measurement is stored.

Outbound references

Observation b55a5704-ef51-4844-8619-1e85ce3e89a1 · outbound

This paper cites https://www.safe.ai/work/ statement-on-ai-risk.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://www.safe.ai/work/ statement-on-ai-risk

Reference 1

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.413736Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 01056091-abab-4e29-a1b7-c06799b6c03e · outbound

This paper cites Mind LIX(236), 433–460 (1950) https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/LIX.236.433.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Mind LIX(236), 433–460 (1950) https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/LIX.236.433

Reference 2

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.858523Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 967b4472-5b20-4705-8bdf-6de2592f287c · outbound

This paper cites Science 384(6698), 842–845 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn0117.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Science 384(6698), 842–845 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn0117

Reference 3

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.863081Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c6369074-82de-4290-9dc0-65c3eaf3bbb0 · outbound

This paper cites Roman Yampolskiy [@romanyam]: Roman Yampolskiy’s P(doom) (2024).

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Roman Yampolskiy [@romanyam]: Roman Yampolskiy’s P(doom) (2024)

Reference 4

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.301383Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation d07e00ac-63a7-41e9-b18a-15d07d8fdb24 · outbound

This paper cites https://x.com/ ylecun/status/1736101101814808598.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://x.com/ ylecun/status/1736101101814808598

Reference 5

Resolution: verified exact; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.230806Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation b811aeec-ae6a-4207-bd0f-8b191c768ec8 · outbound

This paper cites https://philarchive.org/rec/ YAMARD Accessed 2024-10-25.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://philarchive.org/rec/ YAMARD Accessed 2024-10-25

Reference 6

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.399466Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 4f2d6ef8-79f9-44a1-9d86-4e2c8a6caaf4 · outbound

This paper cites Global Sustainability 3, 17 (2020) https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.13.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Global Sustainability 3, 17 (2020) https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.13

Reference 7

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.881846Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 74db3799-c5dd-4916-9b89-ea20e67d6625 · outbound

This paper cites an unresolved cited work.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Unresolved cited work

Reference 8

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.886090Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 9698ab54-0d3a-4c6f-bdbb-6e23f14468dd · outbound

This paper cites Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers

Reference 9

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.890353Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 7223e9d4-c552-4f73-b528-56258c4d9b79 · outbound

This paper cites https://arkose.org/interviews.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://arkose.org/interviews

Reference 10

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.385776Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 17a6fe9a-456c-41ca-b2fe-31f213ea7f70 · outbound

This paper cites https://intelligence.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://intelligence

Reference 11

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.371836Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 732a90ff-f515-440f-b691-2ea7a50c9996 · outbound

This paper cites AGI Safety Literature Review.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts AGI Safety Literature Review

Reference 12

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.903306Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation 8963da5a-8552-4fe6-b70e-12f7bc7061c5 · outbound

This paper cites AI Alignment: A Comprehensive Survey.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts AI Alignment: A Comprehensive Survey

Reference 13

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.907971Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation b368e64a-583c-4fa6-91f6-e3dea94b938e · outbound

This paper cites https://web.stanford.edu/class/cs229t/2017/syllabus.html.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://web.stanford.edu/class/cs229t/2017/syllabus.html

Reference 14

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.357167Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 305dba2e-fdd7-4cc3-8a28-2155cfbb0d6a · outbound

This paper cites In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts In: Proceedings of the Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp

Reference 15

Resolution: malformed identifier; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:36.916281Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation adf79055-e959-4e5f-aae6-400408511b70 · outbound

This paper cites In: Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts In: Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security

Reference 16

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.342233Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation b1c2bb43-5c6b-4bb9-a836-c9015c424c38 · outbound

This paper cites Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2004).

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2004)

Reference 17

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.328625Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Observation 3d80ed7f-bf0d-4193-bab7-d1ae9b6163cb · outbound

This paper cites https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ more-is-different-for-ai/ 24.

Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/ more-is-different-for-ai/ 24

Reference 18

Resolution: verified fuzzy; raw_fallback, observed 2026-08-10T14:45:37.315093Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.

Pith citing papers

Observation 154f2bad-51e0-4e01-9e44-864a9273addf · inbound

Safety Features for a Centralised AGI Project cites this paper.

Safety Features for a Centralised AGI Project Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts

Reference 34

Resolution: unresolved; no resolver link, observed 2026-08-07T00:23:54.862503Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

Unavailable: canonical work link unavailable.

Observation c9a9fdd0-5e7f-4a86-8fa8-aa62dd4ac075 · inbound

The coordination gap in frontier AI safety policies cites this paper.

The coordination gap in frontier AI safety policies Why do Experts Disagree on Existential Risk and P(doom)? A Survey of AI Experts

Reference 10

Resolution: verified exact; arxiv_id, observed 2026-05-21T12:24:10.763563Z

Source-reported events for the cited work

No event found in the named queried sources as of 2026-08-21T06:32:19.484+00:00.