How Rare is the Bullet Cluster?

The galaxy cluster 1E 0657-56 has a bullet-like subcluster that is moving away from the centre of the main cluster at high speed. Markevitch et al. (2004) recently estimated a relative velocity of V_bullet = 4500 +1100/-800 km/s, based on observations of the bow shock in front of the subcluster. The weak lensing analysis of Clowe et al. (2004) indicates that a substantial secondary mass peak is associated with this subcluster. We estimate the likelihood of such a configuration by examining the distribution of subhalo velocities for clusters in the Millennium Run, a large LCDM cosmological simulation. We find that the most massive subhalo has a velocity as high as that of the bullet subcluster in only about 1 out of every 100 cluster-sized halos. This estimate is strongly dependent on the precise velocity adopted for the bullet. One of the ten most massive subhalos has such a high velocity about 40% of the time. We conclude that the velocity of the bullet subcluster is not exceptionally high for a cluster substructure, and can be accommodated within the currently favoured LCDM comogony.