Are the Magellanic Clouds on their First Passage about the Milky Way?

Recent proper motion measurements of the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC, respectively) by Kallivayalil et al (2006a,b) suggest that the 3D velocities of the Clouds are substantially higher (~100 km/s) than previously estimated and now approach the escape velocity of the Milky Way (MW). Previous studies have also assumed that the Milky Way can be adequately modeled as an isothermal sphere to large distances. Here we re-examine the orbital history of the Clouds using the new velocities and a LCDM-motivated MW model with virial mass Mvir = 1e12 Msun (e.g. Klypin et al 2002). We conclude that the Clouds are either currently on their first passage about the MW or, if the MW can be accurately modeled by an isothermal sphere to distances >200 kpc (i.e., Mvir > 2e12 Msun), that their orbital period and apogalacticon distance must be a factor of two larger than previously estimated, increasing to 3 Gyr and 200 kpc, respectively. A first passage scenario is consistent with the fact that the LMC and SMC appear to be outliers when compared to other satellite galaxies of the MW: they are irregular in appearance and are moving faster. We discuss the implications of this orbital analysis for our understanding of the star formation history, the nature of the warp in the MW disk and the origin of the Magellanic Stream (MS), a band of HI gas trailing the LMC and SMC that extends roughly 100 degrees across the sky. Specifically, as a consequence of the new orbital history of the Clouds, the origin of the MS may not be explainable by current tidal and ram pressure stripping models.