Pith Number

pith:22CCPLGI

pith:2026:22CCPLGI22JYONG2JHZZNVPJTS

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

ECTO: Exogenous-Conditioned Temporal Operator for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

Cao Yuan, Junjun Wang

ECTO improves wind power forecasts by adaptively selecting key meteorological variables with physical priors and refining outputs through regime-specific experts.

arxiv:2605.12196 v2 · 2026-05-12 · cs.LG

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\pithnumber{22CCPLGI22JYONG2JHZZNVPJTS}

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

ECTO achieves the lowest MSE across all sites, with relative improvements over the strongest baseline ranging from 2.2% to 5.2%, widening to 8.6% at the longer prediction horizon (H=32). Ablation analysis confirms that each exogenous-related component contributes positively (PGVS +1.84%, ECRR +2.86%).

C2weakest assumption

That the hierarchical, group-aware sparse selection in PGVS using domain-informed physical prior generalizes well and that the mixture-of-experts in ECRR learns meaningful regimes without overfitting to the training data.

C3one line summary

ECTO improves ultra-short-term wind power forecasting by 2.2-8.6% using physically-informed variable selection and regime-specific corrections.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-21T01:04:27.785470Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

d68427acc8d6938734da49f396d5e99ca6651d1e60c175d1a6dc64baff411a2d

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.12196 · arxiv_version: 2605.12196v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.12196 · pith_short_12: 22CCPLGI22JY · pith_short_16: 22CCPLGI22JYONG2 · pith_short_8: 22CCPLGI

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/22CCPLGI22JYONG2JHZZNVPJTS \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: d68427acc8d6938734da49f396d5e99ca6651d1e60c175d1a6dc64baff411a2d

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "f21f03dc1f57bb650a52a39ebbf958b4569a001abb163d4b086c8e9bfad86645",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-12T14:37:23Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "948bb5f2ffd332dd5d25ee7e33e289ad07c22320eb6785d1fb03210350718138"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.12196",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}