Pith Number

pith:3YMS6TWU

pith:2020:3YMS6TWU2ISQU64QQ7Z7A7ROMC

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

When are Bayesian model probabilities overconfident?

Aki Vehtari, M{\aa}ns Magnusson, Mattias Villani, Oscar Oelrich, Shutong Ding

arxiv:2003.04026 v1 · 2020-03-09 · math.ST · stat.TH

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Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{3YMS6TWU2ISQU64QQ7Z7A7ROMC}

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Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Cited by

1 paper in Pith

Robust Bayesian Predictive Model Selection using Bregman Divergence

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T00:46:38.830652Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

de192f4ed4d2250a7b9087f3f07e2e608633fc728d2f6b0522767d6dff8851a4

Aliases

arxiv: 2003.04026 · arxiv_version: 2003.04026v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2003.04026 · pith_short_12: 3YMS6TWU2ISQ · pith_short_16: 3YMS6TWU2ISQU64Q · pith_short_8: 3YMS6TWU

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/3YMS6TWU2ISQU64QQ7Z7A7ROMC \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: de192f4ed4d2250a7b9087f3f07e2e608633fc728d2f6b0522767d6dff8851a4

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "760a7203927b41d7f6f9b66fb41e563e7ddca3052870363649adb3a2b4db3a7e",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "stat.TH"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "math.ST",
    "submitted_at": "2020-03-09T10:30:28Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "eeb0100e6609a3a05f6b19ed9f1d6dd7c9e4152a040f48e7069803e3c24f37d4"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2003.04026",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}