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pith:5YAYLOAT

pith:2026:5YAYLOATBHJVMAVZD53JLZBI24

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ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks

Benjamin J. Zhang, Daniel Elenius, Houman Owhadi, Hyemin Gu, Markos A. Katsoulakis, Michael Tyrrell, Theo J. Bourdais, Tuhin Sahai, Zhizhen Zhang

ISOMORPH creates the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon supply chain to generate forecasting benchmarks and test foundation models.

arxiv:2605.12768 v1 · 2026-05-12 · stat.ML · cs.LG

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Claims

C1strongest claim

Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ.

C2weakest assumption

The simulator's discrete-time rules and state vector produce dynamics that accurately reproduce real supply-chain phenomena such as the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, without direct calibration or validation against proprietary operational data.

C3one line summary

ISOMORPH is a modular digital twin simulator for supply chain networks that releases datasets exhibiting variance amplification and regime shifts for benchmarking forecasting models and performing forward uncertainty quantification.

References

12 extracted · 12 resolved · 1 Pith anchors

[1] Deepbullwhip: An Open-Source Simulation and Benchmarking for Multi-Echelon Bullwhip Analyses · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2604.13478

[2] Enforcing analytic constraints in neural networks emulating physical systems.Physical Review Letters, 126(9), March 2021 · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.126.098302

[3] Hong Chen and David D · doi:10.1287/msom.1060.0149

[4] 24 Christian D 2008

[5] URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S0169207019301128 2019 · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.04.014

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T03:09:48.174830Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

ee0185b81309d35602b91f7695e428d734820623abbfe69c91d8b0bbd09f5ebf

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.12768 · arxiv_version: 2605.12768v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.12768 · pith_short_12: 5YAYLOATBHJV · pith_short_16: 5YAYLOATBHJVMAVZ · pith_short_8: 5YAYLOAT

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/5YAYLOATBHJVMAVZD53JLZBI24 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: ee0185b81309d35602b91f7695e428d734820623abbfe69c91d8b0bbd09f5ebf

Canonical record JSON

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      "cs.LG"
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    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ML",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-12T21:31:32Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "5d4065676ca092e10c1ecf3c9e7637affe29efaa6c8f0776bb888613ce2e1be4"
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