Pith Number

pith:64KNJV7N

pith:2026:64KNJV7NAQULUHFEDOALLPRMKV

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei signals a critical transition within the next decade

Antonio Giovanni Iaccarino, Davide Zaccagnino, Didier Sornette, Matteo Picozzi

Campi Flegrei's accelerating seismicity and uplift fit a finite-time singularity model pointing to a critical transition by 2030-2034.

arxiv:2604.25204 v2 · 2026-04-28 · physics.geo-ph

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\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{64KNJV7NAQULUHFEDOALLPRMKV}

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

the acceleration of seismicity and geodetic deformation is better described by a regularised finite-time singularity than by exponential growth, implying not just a better empirical representation but a different underlying process with potentially dire consequences for the system's subsequent evolution. Independent analyses converge on a critical time tc ≈ 2030-2034, with uplift projected to reach about 4 metres by the early 2030s.

C2weakest assumption

That the observed acceleration in deformation and seismicity is generated by a finite-time singularity process driven by progressive magmatic volatile input, rather than by other mechanisms or data artifacts, and that this fitted model reliably extrapolates future behavior.

C3one line summary

Accelerating unrest at Campi Flegrei fits a regularized finite-time singularity model better than exponential growth, indicating a critical transition by 2030-2034 with 4m uplift from magmatic pressurization.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-25T02:02:15.817402Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

f714d4d7ed0428ba1ca41b80b5be2c555e167aa3e173a45eb3de62db1e8ea35d

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.25204 · arxiv_version: 2604.25204v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.25204 · pith_short_12: 64KNJV7NAQUL · pith_short_16: 64KNJV7NAQULUHFE · pith_short_8: 64KNJV7N

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/64KNJV7NAQULUHFEDOALLPRMKV \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: f714d4d7ed0428ba1ca41b80b5be2c555e167aa3e173a45eb3de62db1e8ea35d

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "b2dcb10751ee9e39375ab653cc71c2ed89e91741236a7512c757e19391b97276",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "physics.geo-ph",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-28T04:15:46Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "22be7aa662665c7bf0d7522784bc52fe093ffdf800ee3f413a36266a0334819a"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.25204",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}