Pith Number

pith:6SHTJKGP

pith:2026:6SHTJKGPSZ4ZREVMFAV7TL7GTE

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

Extended Scenario Bundle Analysis: A Formal Framework for Strategic Scenario Modeling

Thomas Pitz, Vin\'icius Ferraz

An extended Scenario Bundle Analysis framework adds a two-layer architecture and richer attitude vocabulary to model strategic scenarios without full payoffs or probabilities.

arxiv:2605.13222 v1 · 2026-05-13 · econ.TH · cs.GT

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{6SHTJKGPSZ4ZREVMFAV7TL7GTE}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

This paper presents a formal refinement and extension of the original SBA framework, introducing a two-layer architecture that separates a static scenario database from a dynamic scenario tree system. The extended framework incorporates a richer attitude vocabulary: beliefs, desires, intentions, fears, and coalitional commitments, with expectations treated as doxastic attitudes. It also adds a domain/modifier layer for contextual framing, a topology on admissible scenario spaces, typed assessment-state updates, and multi-criteria evaluation.

C2weakest assumption

That the original SBA by Perlmutter and Selten can be extended with these specific mathematical interfaces and attitude layers while preserving its core ability to combine qualitative judgment and interdependence without requiring fully specified payoffs or probabilities.

C3one line summary

The paper formalizes an extension of Scenario Bundle Analysis into a two-layer system with expanded attitudes, topology, and multi-criteria evaluation to support computational strategic scenario modeling.

References

137 extracted · 137 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] 2024 , url = 2024

[2] 2013 , journal = 2013

[3] 1957 , publisher = 1957

[4] 1951 , publisher = 1951

[5] 1999 , journal = 1999

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T03:08:48.351158Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

f48f34a8cf96799892ac282bf9afe69908140083210cc3cb7bc936b15ad599a2

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.13222 · arxiv_version: 2605.13222v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.13222 · pith_short_12: 6SHTJKGPSZ4Z · pith_short_16: 6SHTJKGPSZ4ZREVM · pith_short_8: 6SHTJKGP

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/6SHTJKGPSZ4ZREVMFAV7TL7GTE \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: f48f34a8cf96799892ac282bf9afe69908140083210cc3cb7bc936b15ad599a2

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "8a2211c87c155f704f4a4d472d6faf34e34f3901d016b76f9b15a398f8df4fd0",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.GT"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "econ.TH",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T09:13:32Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "c1b4f6ae4d90339d44c0a8303441b2d3fb9e1d868d58ccfaf3909fe5fc7b8a4d"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.13222",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}