Pith Number

pith:7C7X5U7B

pith:2026:7C7X5U7BNT2EOB443JDEMFKPY7

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

A Horizon-Aware Decision-Support Framework for Demand Forecasting Model Selection in Resilient Production Planning

Adolfo Gonz\'alez, V\'ictor Parada

Projecting test-horizon error metrics forward to the operational horizon improves model selection for multi-step demand forecasting.

arxiv:2602.13939 v6 · 2026-02-15 · cs.LG · cs.AI

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\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{7C7X5U7BNT2EOB443JDEMFKPY7}

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Record completeness

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

MDFH provides a coherent basis for horizon-aware selector design, that RMSSEh and AHSIV remain competitive across heterogeneous demand environments, and that AHSIV adds robustness in structurally complex settings.

C2weakest assumption

The projection of error metrics from test horizon to operational horizon relies on structural stability conditions that are assumed but not shown to hold across the evaluated datasets or real-world shifts.

C3one line summary

MDFH projects test-horizon error metrics to future horizons under stability assumptions, yielding RMSSEh and the adaptive AHSIV selector that outperform static methods on Walmart, M3, M4, and M5 data.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-05T01:15:20.558815Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

f8bf7ed3e16cf447079cda4646154fc7efc3dcee24cbb648e3f851fed62562f5

Aliases

arxiv: 2602.13939 · arxiv_version: 2602.13939v6 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2602.13939 · pith_short_12: 7C7X5U7BNT2E · pith_short_16: 7C7X5U7BNT2EOB44 · pith_short_8: 7C7X5U7B

Agent API

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/7C7X5U7BNT2EOB443JDEMFKPY7 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: f8bf7ed3e16cf447079cda4646154fc7efc3dcee24cbb648e3f851fed62562f5

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "24f5da54a4f199178a98476a8cd18ce72f9759242a6315ae0b52bf7664a6c387",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.AI"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-02-15T00:24:46Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "86cc8b3c467fcb78d92975c6015247225d2b30c0b87f1fa0d309001d56554464"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2602.13939",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 6
  }
}