Pith Number

pith:7DOZ3MH7

pith:2026:7DOZ3MH7SW5ICP6FIIHTU7P2S2

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Multiscale Decomposition Reveals Predictable Interannual Variability and Climate Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

J. Nathan Kutz, J. Scott Hosking, Karl Lapo, Louisa van Zeeland, Oliver Strickson, Peter Yatsyshin

Regularized dynamic mode decomposition forecasts Antarctic sea ice anomalies up to two years ahead by isolating stationary modes.

arxiv:2604.26594 v2 · 2026-04-29 · physics.ao-ph

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\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{7DOZ3MH7SW5ICP6FIIHTU7P2S2}

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

The predictive DMD model (IceDMD) is regularised to prioritize the stationary spatiotemporal modes found by the decomposition. The predictive model can forecast SIC anomalies in 2023-2024 up to two years in advance, outperforming all existing approaches with the additional benefits of physical interpretability and extremely cheap computational cost.

C2weakest assumption

That regularizing the DMD predictor to emphasize the stationary modes identified in the same decomposition produces genuine out-of-sample skill rather than fitting artifacts that fail on future data.

C3one line summary

Hierarchical DMD on Antarctic sea ice data attributes 2014-2017 fluctuations to interannual modes, identifies a dominant climate trend after 2022, and delivers a low-cost IceDMD predictor that outperforms existing methods for 2023-2024 anomalies.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-28T01:04:41.048512Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

f8dd9db0ff95ba813fc5420f3a7dfa968708b5cdc10c73b5d3729bc6a2a6f18b

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.26594 · arxiv_version: 2604.26594v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.26594 · pith_short_12: 7DOZ3MH7SW5I · pith_short_16: 7DOZ3MH7SW5ICP6F · pith_short_8: 7DOZ3MH7

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/7DOZ3MH7SW5ICP6FIIHTU7P2S2 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: f8dd9db0ff95ba813fc5420f3a7dfa968708b5cdc10c73b5d3729bc6a2a6f18b

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "615b5f33ac0e076a86f3cadcd756fe30f0d67cdd12ece2442730d7a2cba3683f",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "physics.ao-ph",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-29T12:23:15Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "a08dab6e1ecf802a6b44a45e57bd0a4706db7503af81aa6bb45e72f7bd434ace"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.26594",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}