Pith Number

pith:ABW2GBME

pith:2025:ABW2GBMEMDA2VC7L5U42DXSZH6

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents

Daniel Hnyk, Dan Schwarz, Finn Hambly, FutureSearch: Jack Wildman, Jon Evans, Lawrence Phillips, Nikos I. Bosse, Peter M\"uhlbacher

arxiv:2506.21558 v1 · 2025-06-11 · cs.CL · cs.AI · cs.LG

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{ABW2GBMEMDA2VC7L5U42DXSZH6}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Cited by

9 papers in Pith

Agentic Time Machine as an Infrastructure for Future-Event Forecasting

ForecastBench-Sim: A Simulated-World Forecasting Benchmark

WorldReasoner: Evaluating Whether Language Model Agents Forecast Events with Valid Reasoning

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T11:27:56.341171Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

006da3058460c1aa8bebed39a1de593f8cd1f44b8c4d91d6dc44a11900e866a6

Aliases

arxiv: 2506.21558 · arxiv_version: 2506.21558v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2506.21558 · pith_short_12: ABW2GBMEMDA2 · pith_short_16: ABW2GBMEMDA2VC7L · pith_short_8: ABW2GBME

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/ABW2GBMEMDA2VC7L5U42DXSZH6 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 006da3058460c1aa8bebed39a1de593f8cd1f44b8c4d91d6dc44a11900e866a6

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "3a16473805d2ebb63c815a17167bc409c9286f2a222e337a6e22f11157c920c8",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.AI",
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CL",
    "submitted_at": "2025-06-11T16:18:40Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "514b6d3aedc69f73eaf5b812368c8223b8ec2e67399a1ac8583db9270b9c17cb"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2506.21558",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}