Pith Number

pith:BWTFCH7V

pith:2026:BWTFCH7VGAEULCSKHRREWT5CYV

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction

Chia-Yen Lee, Yu-Hsueh Fang

State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction gates temporal inertia with spatial kernel-density evidence to balance coverage and efficiency.

arxiv:2605.00432 v2 · 2026-05-01 · cs.LG · stat.ML

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{BWTFCH7VGAEULCSKHRREWT5CYV}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We rigorously prove this mechanism's optimality, identifying a minimax bias-variance tradeoff governed by an evidence threshold K. ... SA-BCP resolves the systematic under-coverage inherent to ACI variants while simultaneously reducing the uncalibrated interval bloat of Bayesian CP by 10% to 37% under high-confidence requests.

C2weakest assumption

That spatial kernel-density evidence can accurately and proactively identify historical regimes to gate temporal inertia without introducing new lag or calibration errors, as stated in the description of the SA-BCP mechanism.

C3one line summary

SA-BCP achieves optimal spatio-temporal decoupling in Bayesian conformal prediction by gating temporal inertia with spatial kernel-density evidence, governed by a minimax bias-variance threshold K, and outperforms ACI and Bayesian CP baselines on financial datasets.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-12T00:07:49.195151Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

0da6511ff53009458a4a3c624b4fa2c570979d4f815d24e6e03de6ec7fb6a1f5

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.00432 · arxiv_version: 2605.00432v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.00432 · pith_short_12: BWTFCH7VGAEU · pith_short_16: BWTFCH7VGAEULCSK · pith_short_8: BWTFCH7V

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/BWTFCH7VGAEULCSKHRREWT5CYV \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 0da6511ff53009458a4a3c624b4fa2c570979d4f815d24e6e03de6ec7fb6a1f5

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "6aeca0658de8cd5c8a8c69ae6d3a8efc258c43da12d8095d2f6621485ad49bca",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "stat.ML"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-01T06:07:07Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "c9aae07ddd7cee857dc3ff27b02a09764d4a50965e91ceec61b322d539752097"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.00432",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}