Pith Number

pith:COEEWI3C

pith:2026:COEEWI3C5HURXUHUTFQMQIQX53

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Improving the Efficiency of Subgroup Analysis in Randomized Controlled Trials with TMLE

Jens Tarp, Mark van der Laan, Maya Petersen, Nerissa Nance, Rachael Phillips, Sky Qiu

Targeted maximum likelihood estimators borrow information from non-subgroup trial participants to improve precision of subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates.

arxiv:2605.15483 v1 · 2026-05-14 · stat.ME · stat.ML

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Both TMLE-PR and A-TMLE enable information sharing from non-subgroup participants within the same trial to augment estimation within the subgroup without relying on external real-world data.

C2weakest assumption

The nuisance parameter estimators (outcome regression or propensity score) are correctly specified or the double robustness of TMLE holds so that borrowing does not introduce bias.

C3one line summary

TMLE-PR and A-TMLE borrow information from non-subgroup participants in RCTs to improve efficiency of subgroup-specific treatment effect estimation, demonstrated on Black and Asian subgroups in the LEADER trial.

References

15 extracted · 15 resolved · 2 Pith anchors

[1] R package version 1.4.2 · doi:10.5281/zenodo.1342293

[2] Journal of Statistical Software33(1), 1–22 33 (2010) https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v033.i01 · doi:10.18637/jss.v033.i01

[3] URLhttps://doi.org/10 · doi:10.21105/joss.02526

[4] David M Kent, Peter M Rothwell, John PA Ioannidis, Doug G Altman, and Rodney A Hayward · doi:10.18637/jss.v070.i04

[5] 32 Xi Lin, Jens Magelund Tarp, and Robin J Evans · doi:10.18637/jss.v110.i06

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:01:00.952377Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

13884b2362e9e91bd0f49960c82217eef482a8bc0e94e8a2d19441878f821b05

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.15483 · arxiv_version: 2605.15483v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.15483 · pith_short_12: COEEWI3C5HUR · pith_short_16: COEEWI3C5HURXUHU · pith_short_8: COEEWI3C

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/COEEWI3C5HURXUHUTFQMQIQX53 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 13884b2362e9e91bd0f49960c82217eef482a8bc0e94e8a2d19441878f821b05

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "8614f19d72271fd4fc8c1995f08b147313c32924335e19534b9220bf9fe214b4",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "stat.ML"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-14T23:54:07Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "b72f7504d422a99e147297fe565755845ae1bd75661bf6363ede2d25b3c45598"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.15483",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}