Pith Number

pith:E2NZR2MY

pith:2026:E2NZR2MY4GG3HJ67KPYGNU6EXF

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Hindcast: Replaying Prediction Markets to Evaluate LLM Forecasters

Ben Zhou, Evan Zhu, Jacob Dineen, Kevin Song, Shijie Lu, Xiao Ye

arxiv:2607.14051 v1 · 2026-07-15 · cs.CL

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{E2NZR2MY4GG3HJ67KPYGNU6EXF}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-16T01:23:21.807744Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

269b98e998e18db3a7df53f066d3c4b954151bec3af9d34a5917df00551ea727

Aliases

arxiv: 2607.14051 · arxiv_version: 2607.14051v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2607.14051 · pith_short_12: E2NZR2MY4GG3 · pith_short_16: E2NZR2MY4GG3HJ67 · pith_short_8: E2NZR2MY

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/E2NZR2MY4GG3HJ67KPYGNU6EXF \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 269b98e998e18db3a7df53f066d3c4b954151bec3af9d34a5917df00551ea727

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "7796947ac3b326159b897d33f1440bb9fbb51593cacd181642bbd8d26ee3fa86",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CL",
    "submitted_at": "2026-07-15T17:21:43Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "f7e8fecf7ae747ca3a4b647d3b4dea91b6766f6b55facc33f45ae151b8cad742"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2607.14051",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}