Pith Number

pith:EAALLCWR

pith:2026:EAALLCWRNIXUF6CUK2CWKXGKF3

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Decision-Induced Ranking Explains Prediction Inflation and Excessive Turnover in SPO-Based Portfolio Optimization

Takashi Hasuike, Yi Wang

SPO-based portfolio optimization inflates return predictions and drives excessive turnover because decisions reduce to ranking over risk- and transaction-cost-adjusted marginal scores.

arxiv:2605.01176 v2 · 2026-05-02 · q-fin.PM · q-fin.CP

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\pithnumber{EAALLCWRNIXUF6CUK2CWKXGKF3}

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Record completeness

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

This study provides a KKT-based interpretation showing that portfolio decisions can be viewed as ranking over risk- and transaction-cost-adjusted marginal scores.

C2weakest assumption

That the observed prediction inflation and excessive turnover are primarily caused by the decision-induced ranking mechanism rather than other modeling choices, data characteristics, or optimization details.

C3one line summary

SPO-based decision-focused learning inflates predictions and causes excessive portfolio turnover because decisions rank assets on risk- and cost-adjusted scores, which can be mitigated by output constraints and partial adjustments.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-25T02:02:16.125535Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

2000b58ad16a2f42f8545685655cca2edf8c043c59683b1bca7851aba269cbe6

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.01176 · arxiv_version: 2605.01176v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.01176 · pith_short_12: EAALLCWRNIXU · pith_short_16: EAALLCWRNIXUF6CU · pith_short_8: EAALLCWR

Agent API

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/EAALLCWRNIXUF6CUK2CWKXGKF3 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 2000b58ad16a2f42f8545685655cca2edf8c043c59683b1bca7851aba269cbe6

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "fc2478a1e50d0dc87dbb93b630c08717576fb20e86de73929a66bd12ae47f021",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "q-fin.CP"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "q-fin.PM",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-02T00:48:16Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "e56d0cec800ff3e88d1f0ae4e30e661317fecc74efc4fc3f851fd89588628d6f"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.01176",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}