Pith Number

pith:FAT5V5AX

pith:2025:FAT5V5AXPG2CPCFDLZG5YB7X3O

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Methodological insights in Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort analysis: an application to the case of Puerto Rico's fertility decline

Ang\'elica M. Rosario Santos, Hernando Mattei, Jomarie Jim\'enez Gonz\'alez, Luis R. Pericchi Guerra

Bayesian APC model shows cohort effects predominate in Puerto Rico fertility decline

arxiv:2504.01148 v5 · 2025-04-01 · stat.AP

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\pithnumber{FAT5V5AXPG2CPCFDLZG5YB7X3O}

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Both frequentist and Bayesian methodologies attribute more importance to cohort effects when explaining fertility changes in Puerto Rico. Birth cohorts born in 1963-1967 onward have notably low fertility rates. There is no evidence of postponement of births in Puerto Rico.

C2weakest assumption

The random-walk-of-order-2 priors on the age, period, and cohort effects, together with the Scaled Beta2 priors on precision parameters, are sufficient to resolve the inherent age-period-cohort identifiability problem and produce stable, interpretable effect estimates on this particular dataset without introducing bias that favors cohort over period.

C3one line summary

Bayesian APC model on Puerto Rico fertility data attributes the decline primarily to cohort effects from the 1963-1967 birth cohort onward, without evidence of birth postponement.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-09T02:08:29.838133Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

2827daf41779b42788a35e4ddc07f7db931d0637499a9cc04bfd92a52269f193

Aliases

arxiv: 2504.01148 · arxiv_version: 2504.01148v5 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2504.01148 · pith_short_12: FAT5V5AXPG2C · pith_short_16: FAT5V5AXPG2CPCFD · pith_short_8: FAT5V5AX

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/FAT5V5AXPG2CPCFDLZG5YB7X3O \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 2827daf41779b42788a35e4ddc07f7db931d0637499a9cc04bfd92a52269f193

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "01fcb2928bb682be88d491462147fb0cc14682a40fcf358c8819c77f07c1b792",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.AP",
    "submitted_at": "2025-04-01T19:30:01Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "96e239817772a9b01aa5fc1845abe60f9183297d88a8c7e9b4b5e320e76d5ef8"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2504.01148",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 5
  }
}