Pith Number

pith:HAIVX3PE

pith:2026:HAIVX3PE6ZTKRPVR76VGWYIJHG

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Predicting Channel Closures in the Lightning Network with Machine Learning

Anthony Potdevin, Emanuele Rossi, Harrison Rush, Jesse Shrader, Simone Antonelli, Vikash Singh, Vincent Davis

Temporal and behavioral signals from public gossip data predict Lightning Network channel closures, while network topology adds no value.

arxiv:2605.12759 v1 · 2026-05-12 · cs.LG · cs.SI

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Claims

C1strongest claim

Our experiments reveal that the dominant predictive signals are temporal and behavioural, namely how recently each endpoint was active and the per-node history of past closures, while the surrounding network topology provides no additional benefit. We find that a simple MLP operating on edge-level features, node-level event counts, and temporal patterns outperforms all graph-based approaches.

C2weakest assumption

That publicly available gossip data contains sufficient temporal and behavioral signals to predict closure types despite the inherent privacy of channel balances and payment flows that remain hidden.

C3one line summary

Simple MLPs using temporal and behavioral features from gossip data predict Lightning Network channel closure types better than temporal graph neural networks.

References

24 extracted · 24 resolved · 1 Pith anchors

[1] The bitcoin lightning network: Scalable off-chain instant payments, 2016

[2] Node classification and geographical analysis of the lightning cryptocurrency network, 2021 · doi:10.1145/3427796.3427837

[3] On the difficulty of hiding the balance of lightning network channels, 2019 · doi:10.1145/3321705.3329812

[4] Benchmarking gnns using lightning network data, 2024

[5] Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs 2006 · arXiv:2006.10637

Formal links

1 machine-checked theorem link

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T03:09:48.498719Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

38115bede4f666a8beb1ffaa6b610939aca016c3ee2c21ff63e92221ab3e8d1e

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.12759 · arxiv_version: 2605.12759v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.12759 · pith_short_12: HAIVX3PE6ZTK · pith_short_16: HAIVX3PE6ZTKRPVR · pith_short_8: HAIVX3PE

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/HAIVX3PE6ZTKRPVR76VGWYIJHG \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 38115bede4f666a8beb1ffaa6b610939aca016c3ee2c21ff63e92221ab3e8d1e

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "f3e8b8e9e1210129928e35c552bca5fc0f97f222f0c72a1028660d77d0d828f8",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.SI"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-12T21:12:12Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "50a2062e8723597306439a2d8bbb5f93518c555d4e4506ff76fb7d1bbd446d51"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.12759",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
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}