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pith:2026:I3L53N3OMULTQN7UW3MSSQLWHR
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Multimodal Hidden Markov Models for Persistent Emotional State Tracking

Anamika Ragu, Aneesh Jonelagadda

Sticky HDP-HMMs recover more interpretable persistent emotional regimes from multimodal valence-arousal trajectories than Gaussian HMM baselines.

arxiv:2605.12838 v1 · 2026-05-13 · cs.AI

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Claims

C1strongest claim

the sticky HDP-HMM produces more interpretable regime sequences than the baseline Gaussian HMM at a fraction of the computational cost of LLM-based dialogue state tracking methods. In addition, Question-Answer experiments in a clinical dataset suggest that meaningful emotional phases can reliably be recovered from multimodal valence-arousal trajectories and used to improve the quality of LLM responses in unstable affective regimes via context augmentation.

C2weakest assumption

That valence-arousal representations extracted from simultaneous video, audio, and text inputs faithfully capture the underlying persistent emotional regimes, and that LLM-as-a-Judge plus geometric/temporal metrics provide a reliable proxy for interpretability and clinical usefulness.

C3one line summary

Sticky factorial HDP-HMMs applied to multimodal valence-arousal trajectories identify interpretable persistent emotional regimes in conversations, outperforming Gaussian HMM baselines in consistency metrics and enabling context-augmented LLM responses.

References

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[1] IEEE access , volume= 2019
[2] arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.07359 , year=
[3] WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery , volume = · doi:10.1002/widm.1563
[4] and Bergeman, Cindy S 2006
[5] arXiv preprint arXiv:2503.08857 , year=

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First computed 2026-05-18T03:09:12.002835Z
Builder pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature Pith Ed25519 (pith-v1-2026-05) · public key
Schema pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

46d7ddb76e65173837f4b6d92941763c58b9b682324925ff4c13a8824a795778

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.12838 · arxiv_version: 2605.12838v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.12838 · pith_short_12: I3L53N3OMULT · pith_short_16: I3L53N3OMULTQN7U · pith_short_8: I3L53N3O
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Verify this Pith Number yourself
curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/I3L53N3OMULTQN7UW3MSSQLWHR \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 46d7ddb76e65173837f4b6d92941763c58b9b682324925ff4c13a8824a795778
Canonical record JSON
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    "primary_cat": "cs.AI",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T00:16:05Z",
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