Pith Number

pith:JNS7EEGC

pith:2026:JNS7EEGCYLFN3UF3BTMMP5Q5T6

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data

Daohong Tu, Kay Giesecke

Online conformal prediction delivers stepwise and long-run coverage bounds for panel data by using contemporaneous outcomes from related units as calibration.

arxiv:2605.17705 v1 · 2026-05-18 · stat.ML · cs.LG · stat.ME

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\pithnumber{JNS7EEGCYLFN3UF3BTMMP5Q5T6}

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

This two-state design yields a stepwise coverage bound and a long-run coverage guarantee.

C2weakest assumption

That contemporaneous outcomes from related units can serve as a valid calibration panel for the target unit under temporal dependence and unit heterogeneity.

C3one line summary

An online conformal prediction framework for non-exchangeable panel data that forms prediction sets using related units' contemporaneous data with adaptive similarity weights and miscoverage levels to deliver stepwise and long-run coverage guarantees.

References

45 extracted · 45 resolved · 1 Pith anchors

[1] Conformal pid control for time series prediction.Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 36:23047–23074, 2023 2023

[2] Conformal prediction: A gentle introduction 2023

[3] Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes 2024

[4] Online conformal prediction via online optimization 2025

[5] Conformal prediction for time series with modern hopfield networks.Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 36: 56027–56074, 2023 2023

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:04:53.695802Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

4b65f210c2c2caddd0bb0cd8c7f61d9fb912460de7bc88fb4f99eb3f5be553d7

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.17705 · arxiv_version: 2605.17705v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.17705 · pith_short_12: JNS7EEGCYLFN · pith_short_16: JNS7EEGCYLFN3UF3 · pith_short_8: JNS7EEGC

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/JNS7EEGCYLFN3UF3BTMMP5Q5T6 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 4b65f210c2c2caddd0bb0cd8c7f61d9fb912460de7bc88fb4f99eb3f5be553d7

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "5dd2b4e3abb299968e9204c1525767fdee5b773c77528cb35b11afd6403b2a48",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.LG",
      "stat.ME"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ML",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-18T00:02:11Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "8260b3b9f41c79e0d3a003e39288e2c5afdff5a6e1e38fbc5d3224573adde0ca"
  },
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  "source": {
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    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}