Pith Number

pith:K64RD2RU

pith:2026:K64RD2RUTZYFG5FTB2GGYHUCNO

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Moving beyond spatial and random cross-validation in environmental modelling: a call for prediction-domain adaptive evaluation

Hanna Meyer, Jakub Nowosad, Jan Linnenbrink

Prediction-domain adaptive cross-validation provides reliable accuracy estimates across interpolation and extrapolation scenarios.

arxiv:2605.13689 v1 · 2026-05-13 · stat.ME

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\pithnumber{K64RD2RUTZYFG5FTB2GGYHUCNO}

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3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

To address this gap, we advocate for a new category of cross-validation methods to account for this: prediction-domain adaptive evaluation. Methods in this category flexibly adapt to the prediction situation, yielding most reliable estimates of map accuracy across different scenarios.

C2weakest assumption

That practical methods belonging to the proposed prediction-domain adaptive category can be developed and will demonstrably outperform existing random and spatial cross-validation approaches in providing reliable accuracy estimates across the interpolation-extrapolation continuum.

C3one line summary

Prediction-domain adaptive cross-validation is proposed as a flexible alternative to fixed random or spatial methods for reliably estimating accuracy in environmental maps.

References

45 extracted · 45 resolved · 1 Pith anchors

[1] Nature Communications , author = 2020

[2] Nature Communications , author = 2022

[3] Methods in Ecology and Evolution , volume = 2041 · doi:10.1111/2041-210x.13650

[4] Wadoux and Gerard B.M 2021 · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109692

[5] Brenning , title = 2012 · doi:10.1109/igarss.2012.6352393

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T02:44:16.967007Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

57b911ea349e705374b30e8c6c1e826b88623b4700b7435a3c88c16054357554

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.13689 · arxiv_version: 2605.13689v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.13689 · pith_short_12: K64RD2RUTZYF · pith_short_16: K64RD2RUTZYFG5FT · pith_short_8: K64RD2RU

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/K64RD2RUTZYFG5FTB2GGYHUCNO \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 57b911ea349e705374b30e8c6c1e826b88623b4700b7435a3c88c16054357554

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "9ae2955b15f154cf020adec98f61fc0690388e534887e47ad2b2881db261c4ee",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T15:42:40Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "bdf8daa2283fd02103a94f875e9624a625d3da0c0647e8e68a8c7b6ce06c2afd"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.13689",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}