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An Enriched Model of Strategic Voting under Uncertainty

Henri Surugue, S\'ebastien Destercke

A model of strategic voting uses probability sets and lower/upper expected utility gains to represent uncertain preferences.

arxiv:2605.15786 v1 · 2026-05-15 · cs.GT

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Claims

C1strongest claim

Focusing on belief functions in particular, we demonstrate that this very expressive model includes in one sweep many existing models based on probabilities, sets or incomplete preferences. Additionally, we generalize several well-known convergence results from the literature to this broader representational setting.

C2weakest assumption

The assumption that probability sets and lower/upper expected utility gains provide a sufficiently expressive and consistent way to model preferences and strategic decisions without introducing inconsistencies that invalidate the unification or generalizations.

C3one line summary

A new model using probability sets and belief functions unifies existing strategic voting approaches based on probabilities, sets, or incomplete preferences while generalizing convergence results.

References

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[1] In: Proceedings of the 19th Interna- tional Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AA- MAS 2020) 2020
[2] Cambridge University Press (1958) 1958
[3] In: Proceedings of the 25th AAAI conference on artifi- cial intelligence (AAAI 2011) 2011
[4] Decision processes3, 159–165 (1954) 1954
[5] Denneberg, D.: Non-additive measure and integral, vol. 27. Springer Science & Business Media (2013) 2013

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Receipt and verification
First computed 2026-05-20T00:01:18.278584Z
Builder pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature Pith Ed25519 (pith-v1-2026-05) · public key
Schema pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

54c9a3b7122737a92275189ab250286642bedcb519b35433bfef72c9ece1ef43

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.15786 · arxiv_version: 2605.15786v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.15786 · pith_short_12: KTE2HNYSE432 · pith_short_16: KTE2HNYSE432SITV · pith_short_8: KTE2HNYS
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curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/KTE2HNYSE432SITVDCNLEUBIMZ \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 54c9a3b7122737a92275189ab250286642bedcb519b35433bfef72c9ece1ef43
Canonical record JSON
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    "submitted_at": "2026-05-15T09:43:56Z",
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