Pith Number

pith:MVKWUG2N

pith:2026:MVKWUG2NWVYUTKNN3YWSFL22HT

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

Causal Discovery via Statistical Power (CDSP)

Elena A. Erosheva, Fan Xia, Shreya Prakash

Effect-size asymmetry lets statistical power identify causal direction with uncertainty from bivariate observations.

arxiv:2605.13550 v1 · 2026-05-13 · stat.ME

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state What is a Pith Number?

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We show that the effect-size asymmetry assumption can be used for causal direction estimation with uncertainty quantification. Simulations show that CDSP direction estimation is robust to mild and moderate model misspecifications. Real data analyses on 100 cause-effect benchmark pairs further demonstrate that CDSP reduces false discovery rates by approximately 18% relative to a commonly used existing method.

C2weakest assumption

The effect-size asymmetry assumption that characterizes when the probability of correctly detecting the causal direction exceeds that of incorrectly favoring the reverse direction.

C3one line summary

CDSP uses an effect-size asymmetry assumption and statistical power to estimate causal directions from bivariate data with uncertainty, reducing false discoveries by 18% on 100 benchmark pairs.

References

197 extracted · 197 resolved · 8 Pith anchors

[1] Behavior Research Methods , volume= 2018

[2] Reproducibility crisis , author=. Nature , volume=

[3] Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science , author=. Science , volume=. 2015 , publisher= 2015

[4] American Society of Clinical Oncology Educational Book , volume= 2013

[5] Science translational medicine , volume= 2016

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T02:44:23.749192Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

65556a1b4db57149a9adde2d22af5a3cd51af7184bf2a55f14ac095cbac04a53

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.13550 · arxiv_version: 2605.13550v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.13550 · pith_short_12: MVKWUG2NWVYU · pith_short_16: MVKWUG2NWVYUTKNN · pith_short_8: MVKWUG2N

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/MVKWUG2NWVYUTKNN3YWSFL22HT \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 65556a1b4db57149a9adde2d22af5a3cd51af7184bf2a55f14ac095cbac04a53

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "f354b02847c6db81c53b73b3ebc924e49cfe9cbca638feaf3c9e5a8fdcda7238",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T13:56:31Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "55409bbf5277946e964baec4266d71413802fcc7bb2366f9992664dda90a0739"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.13550",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}