Pith Number

pith:NKEHYCHX

pith:2026:NKEHYCHXW7AOKX5EUOYHXX6GET

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You've Got to be Efficient: Ambiguity, Misspecification and Variational Preferences

Karun Adusumilli

Optimal decisions for estimation and treatment assignment coincide with those under correct specification regardless of misspecification degree.

arxiv:2604.05327 v3 · 2026-04-07 · econ.EM

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\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{NKEHYCHXW7AOKX5EUOYHXX6GET}

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Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

for both estimation and treatment assignment, we show that optimal decisions coincide with those under correct specification, regardless of the degree of misspecification. These results extend to semi-parametric models.

C2weakest assumption

The framework assumes that uniformly expanding the ambiguity set by a Kullback-Leibler radius adequately captures likelihood misspecification while allowing separation from prior ambiguity, and that the resulting minimax problem with exponentially tilted loss yields decisions equivalent to the correctly specified case.

C3one line summary

Optimal decisions under combined prior ambiguity and likelihood misspecification coincide with those under correct specification for estimation and treatment assignment, regardless of misspecification degree.

Cited by

2 papers in Pith

Misspecification-Averse Estimation

Integrating Diagnostic Checks into Estimation

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-09T01:05:16.885928Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

6a887c08f7b7c0e55fa4a3b07bdfc624f97306eb193fb203f057ac3c74411841

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.05327 · arxiv_version: 2604.05327v3 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.05327 · pith_short_12: NKEHYCHXW7AO · pith_short_16: NKEHYCHXW7AOKX5E · pith_short_8: NKEHYCHX

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/NKEHYCHXW7AOKX5EUOYHXX6GET \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 6a887c08f7b7c0e55fa4a3b07bdfc624f97306eb193fb203f057ac3c74411841

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "15b3c086eab6105cbc288a619d9197f5a92885d273cf5a7356c87bb08ae98c41",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "econ.EM",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-07T01:57:46Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "3f2cbf289a7d791be3a4773a394f720093cc6950f68d0a3c02ec9507a7edb811"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.05327",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 3
  }
}