Pith Number

pith:OHRT7PS4

pith:2026:OHRT7PS4R6CXJEUNQDFBROKBX6

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Europe and the Geopolitics of AGI: The Need for a Preparedness Plan

Afek Shamir, Beng\"usu \"Ozcan, Daan Juijn, David Jank\r{u}, Lisa Soder, Lorenzo Pacchiardi, Lucia Velasco, Maksym Andriushchenko, Maximilian Negele, Max Reddel, Michiel Bakker

Europe requires a coordinated preparedness agenda to manage the geopolitical shifts expected from AGI emerging between 2030 and 2040.

arxiv:2605.13634 v1 · 2026-05-13 · cs.CY

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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Claims

C1strongest claim

A plausible window for AGI emergence falls between 2030 and 2040, or potentially earlier, though substantial uncertainty remains; Europe has critical gaps in strategic awareness, compute infrastructure, talent retention, industrial AI adoption, and fragmented policy responses.

C2weakest assumption

That expert forecasting surveys and current capability trends provide a reliable basis for the 2030-2040 timeline and that the listed infrastructure and policy gaps are the primary drivers of Europe's relative position.

C3one line summary

AGI may arrive by 2030-2040 and reshape global power balances, requiring Europe to close gaps in compute, talent retention, industrial adoption, and unified policy responses through a coordinated preparedness agenda.

References

300 extracted · 300 resolved · 5 Pith anchors

[1] Abbott, John. 2025. ‘SoftBank, OpenAI, Oracle and MGX Commit to $100B for Stargate AI Infrastructure.’ S&P Global Market Intelligence. As of 3 December 2025:https: //www.spglobal.com/market-intelligen 2025

[2] Abecassis, Adrien, Jonathan Barry, Ima Bello, Yoshua Bengio, Antonin Bergeaud, Yann Bonnet, Philipp Hacker, et al. 2025. ‘A Blueprint for Multinational Advanced AI Develop- ment.’ As of 3 December 202 2025

[3] Abyazov, Emir. 2025. ‘China Spends $137.5 Billion for the AI Race.’ Coinpape, 27 January. As of 3 December 2025:https://coinpaper.com/7171/china-spends-137-5-billion- for-the-ai-race 2025

[4] Economic Policy , author = 2024 · doi:10.1093/epolic/eiae042

[5] Adamson, Georgia, & Gregory C. Allen. 2025. ‘Opportunities to Strengthen U.S. Biosecurity from AI- Enabled Bioterrorism: What Policymakers Should Know.’ Center for Strategic & International Studies. A 2025

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T02:44:17.699077Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

71e33fbe5c8f8574928d80ca18b941bf8246ff3129f0e422a4bce7ff38eae6b7

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.13634 · arxiv_version: 2605.13634v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.13634 · pith_short_12: OHRT7PS4R6CX · pith_short_16: OHRT7PS4R6CXJEUN · pith_short_8: OHRT7PS4

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/OHRT7PS4R6CXJEUNQDFBROKBX6 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 71e33fbe5c8f8574928d80ca18b941bf8246ff3129f0e422a4bce7ff38eae6b7

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "a211c459c00d3a8b0c06d512f55544a5e169ea901565a3e8a4dc017e47f3aea2",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.CY",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-13T15:00:29Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "c4816d7708bb49b8291807641aa95ea5c729b8727ada5d6305bb2fc9401efa14"
  },
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  "source": {
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    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}