Pith Number

pith:Q2HUL3ZM

pith:2026:Q2HUL3ZMVLXCZXQ4HKJH3QHGYC

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarket

Victoria Portnaya

arxiv:2606.19517 v1 · 2026-06-17 · q-fin.TR

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{Q2HUL3ZMVLXCZXQ4HKJH3QHGYC}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-19T16:12:27.624415Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

868f45ef2caaee2cde1c3a927dc0e6c086df562c46e66acb0d58bf58b0657021

Aliases

arxiv: 2606.19517 · arxiv_version: 2606.19517v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2606.19517 · pith_short_12: Q2HUL3ZMVLXC · pith_short_16: Q2HUL3ZMVLXCZXQ4 · pith_short_8: Q2HUL3ZM

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/Q2HUL3ZMVLXCZXQ4HKJH3QHGYC \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 868f45ef2caaee2cde1c3a927dc0e6c086df562c46e66acb0d58bf58b0657021

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "ac48880f2219507c06a815c2580252c4b560fb103d7dbab53db83abd32c6301e",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "q-fin.TR",
    "submitted_at": "2026-06-17T19:06:52Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "9be3f895b4858eacd446edbe453cec5352447a9cabb63837e31d0bdd23a79a0c"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2606.19517",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}