Pith Number

pith:Q6KJXRDW

pith:2026:Q6KJXRDWAAR3Q5RJVT2RX4BQ4R

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Efficient Generative Prediction for EHR Foundation Models: The SCOPE and REACH Estimators

Bashar Ramadan, Brett K. Beaulieu-Jones, Luke Solo, Matthew B.A. McDermott, Michael C. Burkhart, William F. Parker

SCOPE and REACH estimators enable unbiased clinical outcome prediction from generative EHR models with far fewer tokens than Monte Carlo sampling.

arxiv:2602.03730 v2 · 2026-02-03 · stat.ML · cs.LG

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We prove both are unbiased, that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo for any model and outcome, and that REACH is a Rao-Blackwellization of any naive importance sampling scheme that preserves the non-outcome token distribution.

C2weakest assumption

The generative model's next-token probability distributions accurately reflect the underlying data distribution and can be directly leveraged for conditional outcome probability calculations without further approximation or model-specific adjustments.

C3one line summary

SCOPE and REACH are unbiased estimators that deliver Monte Carlo-level accuracy for EHR outcome prediction using 2.5-80x fewer tokens via direct use of conditional probabilities and variance reduction guarantees.

Cited by

1 paper in Pith

Federated generative event models for tokenized electronic health records

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-18T03:10:11.254812Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

87949bc4760023b87629acf51bf030e442ff8d160aea0a5f716d8636aaa90be2

Aliases

arxiv: 2602.03730 · arxiv_version: 2602.03730v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2602.03730 · pith_short_12: Q6KJXRDWAAR3 · pith_short_16: Q6KJXRDWAAR3Q5RJ · pith_short_8: Q6KJXRDW

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/Q6KJXRDWAAR3Q5RJVT2RX4BQ4R \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 87949bc4760023b87629acf51bf030e442ff8d160aea0a5f716d8636aaa90be2

Canonical record JSON

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    "abstract_canon_sha256": "ea8a8c7e4fe2f8919a03fd8f83949d2b74cfc52bc9412c2b76edaf2f47a11bcb",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.LG"
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    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ML",
    "submitted_at": "2026-02-03T16:49:44Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "e755dfb0d3a97edb93ad217775793e95eb0fb5b271d2e8e0774af1710b62ebe1"
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