Pith Number

pith:REP22CJ2

pith:2025:REP22CJ2XN6KS7AX2MAAREEHHM

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Predicting Realized Variance Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat The Benchmark?

Austin Pollok

arxiv:2506.07928 v1 · 2025-06-09 · q-fin.ST

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{REP22CJ2XN6KS7AX2MAAREEHHM}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T11:18:35.493515Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

891fad093abb7ca97c17d3000890873b373269dc20c7dbaa7825b629d94b3a04

Aliases

arxiv: 2506.07928 · arxiv_version: 2506.07928v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2506.07928 · pith_short_12: REP22CJ2XN6K · pith_short_16: REP22CJ2XN6KS7AX · pith_short_8: REP22CJ2

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/REP22CJ2XN6KS7AX2MAAREEHHM \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 891fad093abb7ca97c17d3000890873b373269dc20c7dbaa7825b629d94b3a04

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "95c464a7b81ea0a9862ff5731f1ae88beb169dd9ee7c44d55aa4739d38d84d08",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "q-fin.ST",
    "submitted_at": "2025-06-09T16:44:03Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "c1f38c2a9be5a18738271d999ea15979cecd47a7975c4f0bd32a33ce8f0cada6"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2506.07928",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}