Pith Number

pith:S4JFLVXN

pith:2026:S4JFLVXNGLRQYAEE3H56KILRNM

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

ADAPT: A Self-Calibrating Proactive Autoscaler for Container Orchestration

Himanshu Singh Baghel

An online EWMA estimator of varying cold-start durations lets an MPC controller hold SLA violations below 5 percent across all tested workloads.

arxiv:2605.15788 v1 · 2026-05-15 · cs.DC · cs.LG

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\pithnumber{S4JFLVXNGLRQYAEE3H56KILRNM}

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

MPC+LSTM achieves below 5% SLA violation on all workloads, compared with 7-19% for reactive HPA and up to 28.7% for MPC+Prophet on bimodal traffic.

C2weakest assumption

The assumption that an online EWMA estimator can reliably track and adapt to varying cold-start durations across environments and consecutive scale-out events without additional sensors or external calibration.

C3one line summary

ADAPT uses an EWMA estimator for cold-start durations to set a dynamic horizon in an MPC-based proactive autoscaler, achieving under 5% SLA violations with MPC+LSTM across tested workloads versus higher rates for HPA and MPC+Prophet.

References

28 extracted · 28 resolved · 2 Pith anchors

[1] Kubernetes Authors, “Horizontal Pod Autoscaling,” https: //kubernetes.io/docs/tasks/run-application/horizontal-pod-autoscale/, 2024, [Accessed 2026-05-01] 2024

[2] AWS Lambda cold start latency — performance under load, 2024

[3] An experimental evaluation of the Kubernetes cluster autoscaler in the cloud, 2020

[4] Machine learning-based scaling management for Kubernetes edge clusters, 2021

[5] Toward optimal load prediction and customizable autoscaling scheme for Kubernetes, 2023

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:01:18.352255Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

971255d6ed32e30c0084d9fbe521716b28c67bd79419a01b2352cd482a2eb4a6

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.15788 · arxiv_version: 2605.15788v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.15788 · pith_short_12: S4JFLVXNGLRQ · pith_short_16: S4JFLVXNGLRQYAEE · pith_short_8: S4JFLVXN

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/S4JFLVXNGLRQYAEE3H56KILRNM \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 971255d6ed32e30c0084d9fbe521716b28c67bd79419a01b2352cd482a2eb4a6

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "f15bc0349b0b64be805be2ec20dda2b0be42786aea22ab73184739009f5bdbe5",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "cs.LG"
    ],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.DC",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-15T09:46:43Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "bd7eb498728ab66f80499dcdc9cc65e0fea6f5121e1190a26d8760da344f87da"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.15788",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
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}