Pith Number

pith:S5RL5JSB

pith:2026:S5RL5JSBPVT44WJRV3Y4PNRQYW

not attested not anchored not stored refs resolved

What if Tomorrow is the World Cup Final? Counterfactual Time Series Forecasting with Textual Conditions

Baoyu Jing, Kan Ren, Shuqi Gu, Yongxiang Zhao

A text-attribution mechanism allows counterfactual time series forecasting by separating mutable and immutable factors in textual conditions.

arxiv:2605.14422 v1 · 2026-05-14 · cs.LG

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\pithnumber{S5RL5JSBPVT44WJRV3Y4PNRQYW}

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Record completeness

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2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

We introduce the task of counterfactual time series forecasting with textual conditions, enabling more flexible and condition-aware forecasting. We present a novel text-attribution mechanism that distinguishes mutable from immutable factors, thereby improving forecast accuracy under sophisticated and stochastic textual conditions.

C2weakest assumption

That textual conditions can be reliably decomposed into mutable and immutable factors via the proposed attribution mechanism and that evaluation remains meaningful without ground-truth time series for counterfactual cases.

C3one line summary

Introduces the task of counterfactual time series forecasting with textual conditions plus a text-attribution mechanism that improves accuracy by distinguishing mutable from immutable factors.

References

53 extracted · 53 resolved · 8 Pith anchors

[1] Scaling Learning Algorithms Towards

[2] and Osindero, Simon and Teh, Yee Whye , journal =

[3] Deep learning , author=. 2016 , publisher= 2016

[4] The 41st international ACM SIGIR conference on research & development in information retrieval , pages=

[5] Proceedings of the 33rd ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management , pages=

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-17T23:39:07.237789Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

9762bea6417d67ce5931aef1c7b630c5a2ad1aada04aa9e74ed1eafccbaace50

Aliases

arxiv: 2605.14422 · arxiv_version: 2605.14422v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2605.14422 · pith_short_12: S5RL5JSBPVT4 · pith_short_16: S5RL5JSBPVT44WJR · pith_short_8: S5RL5JSB

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/S5RL5JSBPVT44WJRV3Y4PNRQYW \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 9762bea6417d67ce5931aef1c7b630c5a2ad1aada04aa9e74ed1eafccbaace50

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "23e9c3e406f8800d277cdc6e0fbea932b56e623c718de5afeb2e1edafc049760",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "cs.LG",
    "submitted_at": "2026-05-14T06:10:23Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "daf5c0abbe3e65195bf71c2107436d7501e5565c4912192ebbc60f7dedb54bce"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2605.14422",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}