Pith Number

pith:SK5JTIP6

pith:2026:SK5JTIP6VEFHXLF67ZZAP2EF3S

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Estimating Dynamic Marginal Policy Effects under Sequential Unconfoundedness

I-han Lai, Stefan Wager

Dynamic marginal policy effects can be identified via tractable reduced-form expressions and estimated with a doubly robust estimator under sequential unconfoundedness.

arxiv:2604.05639 v2 · 2026-04-07 · stat.ME

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4 Citations open

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The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Dynamic marginal policy effects can be identified via tractable reduced-form expressions and estimated under sequential unconfoundedness with a doubly robust estimator that does not require full dynamic state information and avoids the exponential curse of horizon.

C2weakest assumption

The sequential unconfoundedness assumption holds, allowing identification of dynamic MPEs from observed data without full state information.

C3one line summary

Develops tractable reduced-form identification and a doubly robust estimator for dynamic marginal policy effects that avoids full state observation and exponential horizon curse.

References

4 extracted · 4 resolved · 0 Pith anchors

[1] Non-parametric causal inference in dynamic thresholding designs

[2] Switchback experiments under geometric mixing.arXiv preprint arXiv:2209.00197

[3] Estimation of treatment effects under nonstation- arity via the truncated policy gradient estimator.arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.05308

[4] Yuya Sasaki and Takuya Ura · doi:10.1111/biom.13859

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-20T00:00:37.741030Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

92ba99a1fea90a7bacbefe7207e885dcb20aef954a0efa8e829116654e4e62cd

Aliases

arxiv: 2604.05639 · arxiv_version: 2604.05639v2 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2604.05639 · pith_short_12: SK5JTIP6VEFH · pith_short_16: SK5JTIP6VEFHXLF6 · pith_short_8: SK5JTIP6

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Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/SK5JTIP6VEFHXLF67ZZAP2EF3S \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: 92ba99a1fea90a7bacbefe7207e885dcb20aef954a0efa8e829116654e4e62cd

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "5f033bdcdc44695e266e8022fcdbc41567376baea7a7da655a60a9b08792405f",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.ME",
    "submitted_at": "2026-04-07T09:41:11Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "6b3ad0091ac614eeb70299e1cc55ddbef05954658a7532d8018e119fa4e8bf7d"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2604.05639",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 2
  }
}