Pith Number

pith:UVQLOHJA

pith:2025:UVQLOHJASVBRBUTEE4YLT2EXM5

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Nested Sampling for ARIMA Model Selection in Astronomical Time-Series Analysis

Ajinkya Naik, Will Handley

Nested sampling computes Bayesian evidence to select optimal ARIMA orders for astronomical time series.

arxiv:2512.01929 v3 · 2025-12-01 · astro-ph.IM · astro-ph.EP · astro-ph.SR

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{UVQLOHJASVBRBUTEE4YLT2EXM5}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Claims

C1strongest claim

Our results demonstrate that nested sampling offers a rigorous and computationally tractable alternative to autoregressive model selection in astronomical time-series analysis.

C2weakest assumption

That astronomical time series are adequately described by linear ARIMA processes whose orders can be reliably distinguished by Bayesian evidence computed via nested sampling, without significant model misspecification or sampling failures in the high-dimensional parameter spaces of higher-order models.

C3one line summary

Nested sampling applied to ARIMA models enables Bayesian order selection and parameter inference that recovers ground truth in simulations and fits stochastic variability in sunspot, Kepler, and TESS light curves.

Formal links

2 machine-checked theorem links

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-06-12T00:07:48.734807Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

a560b71d20954310d2642730b9e8976742a0dfd6fa631ec28c867cd6b0bd272f

Aliases

arxiv: 2512.01929 · arxiv_version: 2512.01929v3 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2512.01929 · pith_short_12: UVQLOHJASVBR · pith_short_16: UVQLOHJASVBRBUTE · pith_short_8: UVQLOHJA

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/UVQLOHJASVBRBUTEE4YLT2EXM5 \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: a560b71d20954310d2642730b9e8976742a0dfd6fa631ec28c867cd6b0bd272f

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "749f8c6bb3b7b18ae3fee19ce022ac685ec99936f19d39ae799f0e161ca80380",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "astro-ph.EP",
      "astro-ph.SR"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "astro-ph.IM",
    "submitted_at": "2025-12-01T17:45:00Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "e346efa9a5153ec3c992b4552c17b642e96277a064e41264945e099d5aeff4f2"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2512.01929",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 3
  }
}