Pith Number

pith:WDKG4LXD

pith:2019:WDKG4LXDQO2VQL5JCO3VFTZ6SL

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Election predictions are arbitrage-free: response to Taleb

Aubrey Clayton

arxiv:1907.01576 v1 · 2019-07-02 · q-fin.MF · math.PR

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{WDKG4LXDQO2VQL5JCO3VFTZ6SL}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-05-17T23:41:35.909142Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

b0d46e2ee383b5582fa913b752cf3e92eefa9f431a851a22a187e4b4797e8f4d

Aliases

arxiv: 1907.01576 · arxiv_version: 1907.01576v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.1907.01576 · pith_short_12: WDKG4LXDQO2V · pith_short_16: WDKG4LXDQO2VQL5J · pith_short_8: WDKG4LXD

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/WDKG4LXDQO2VQL5JCO3VFTZ6SL \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: b0d46e2ee383b5582fa913b752cf3e92eefa9f431a851a22a187e4b4797e8f4d

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "3d07b92821db0504281251fc000fcabf001b2414436ccebd01349f6094f8a396",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [
      "math.PR"
    ],
    "license": "http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/",
    "primary_cat": "q-fin.MF",
    "submitted_at": "2019-07-02T18:22:17Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "210b8228493974be4954b8d66a7f5e6ac647941aeb883578dac1cb72fa4acbcd"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "1907.01576",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}