Pith Number

pith:XZRDHLNH

pith:2025:XZRDHLNH64MD65V53LR4DVJSHT

not attested not anchored not stored refs pending

Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections?

Brett Goldstein, Hiba Baroud, Laurie E. Cutting, Paul M. Johnson, Sarah S. Hughes-Berheim

arxiv:2507.08921 v1 · 2025-07-11 · stat.OT

Open paper page JSON Open Graph Bundle Merged state Verified badge What is a Pith Number?

Add to your LaTeX paper

\usepackage{pith}
\pithnumber{XZRDHLNH64MD65V53LR4DVJSHT}

Prints a linked badge after your title and injects PDF metadata. Compiles on arXiv. Learn more · Embed verified badge

Record completeness

1 Bitcoin timestamp

2 Internet Archive

3 Author claim open · sign in to claim

4 Citations open

5 Replications open

✓ Portable graph bundle live · download bundle · merged state

The bundle contains the canonical record plus signed events. A mirror can host it anywhere and recompute the same current state with the deterministic merge algorithm.

Cited by

1 paper in Pith

Unlocking the Forecasting Economy: A Suite of Datasets for the Full Lifecycle of Prediction Market: [Experiments \& Analysis]

Receipt and verification

First computed	2026-07-05T11:36:00.742297Z
Builder	pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1
Signature	Pith Ed25519 (`pith-v1-2026-05`) · public key
Schema	pith-number/v1.0

Canonical hash

be6233ada7f7183f76bddae3c1d5323cced7af0ad95a2a262f719409d8ea10b2

Aliases

arxiv: 2507.08921 · arxiv_version: 2507.08921v1 · doi: 10.48550/arxiv.2507.08921 · pith_short_12: XZRDHLNH64MD · pith_short_16: XZRDHLNH64MD65V5 · pith_short_8: XZRDHLNH

Agent API

Resolver JSON Graph JSON Events JSON Schema Signing key

Verify this Pith Number yourself

curl -sH 'Accept: application/ld+json' https://pith.science/pith/XZRDHLNH64MD65V53LR4DVJSHT \
  | jq -c '.canonical_record' \
  | python3 -c "import sys,json,hashlib; b=json.dumps(json.loads(sys.stdin.read()), sort_keys=True, separators=(',',':'), ensure_ascii=False).encode(); print(hashlib.sha256(b).hexdigest())"
# expect: be6233ada7f7183f76bddae3c1d5323cced7af0ad95a2a262f719409d8ea10b2

Canonical record JSON

{
  "metadata": {
    "abstract_canon_sha256": "1cb0af7061e3c6d27ab8478f33ee4136c760a454af6f0801fde234a15736b3b5",
    "cross_cats_sorted": [],
    "license": "http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "primary_cat": "stat.OT",
    "submitted_at": "2025-07-11T17:03:39Z",
    "title_canon_sha256": "1251aeca1aac95e6b6292d7b58d4b352c4bcec8bec47bcabc8bfaeaa0ec09ca3"
  },
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "source": {
    "id": "2507.08921",
    "kind": "arxiv",
    "version": 1
  }
}