In multistage SI(k)R models, the relationship between prevalence peak and weighted stage functional maxima varies with scaling of progression rates, converging under Erlang scaling to a delay model that justifies the factor-two approximation with error bounds and corrections.
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A nine-compartment nonlinear model with two viral strains and PCHIP-based time-varying parameters is calibrated to Italian COVID-19 third-wave data, achieving high R^2 fits and proving analytical stability properties.
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Approximating Peak Prevalence in Multistage SIR Epidemics
In multistage SI(k)R models, the relationship between prevalence peak and weighted stage functional maxima varies with scaling of progression rates, converging under Erlang scaling to a delay model that justifies the factor-two approximation with error bounds and corrections.
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A Nine-Compartment Nonlinear Epidemic Model with Spline-Based Identification of Time-Varying Transmission and Vaccination Dynamics: Application to the COVID-19 Third Wave in Italy
A nine-compartment nonlinear model with two viral strains and PCHIP-based time-varying parameters is calibrated to Italian COVID-19 third-wave data, achieving high R^2 fits and proving analytical stability properties.