Risk-controlled post-processing yields a threshold-structured policy that follows the baseline except where an oracle fallback sharply reduces conditional violation risk, achieving O(log n/n) expected excess risk in i.i.d. settings and exact risk control under exchangeability.
conformal and probabilistic prediction and applications , pages=
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SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.
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Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies
Risk-controlled post-processing yields a threshold-structured policy that follows the baseline except where an oracle fallback sharply reduces conditional violation risk, achieving O(log n/n) expected excess risk in i.i.d. settings and exact risk control under exchangeability.
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Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
SA-BCP adaptively blends temporal Bayesian predictions with spatial KDE evidence via threshold K, derives closed-form MSE-optimal K, and provides an online selection procedure with regret bounds, yielding sharper intervals at nominal coverage on volatility and weather data.