Non-scoring turnovers and post-turnover starting position are the most consistent complementary-football drivers of drive scoring, and adding them to strength-of-schedule-adjusted ordinal regression improves out-of-sample drive-level prediction.
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Partially Regularized Ordinal Regression to Adjust Teams' Scoring for Strength of Schedule and Complementary Unit Performance in American Football
Non-scoring turnovers and post-turnover starting position are the most consistent complementary-football drivers of drive scoring, and adding them to strength-of-schedule-adjusted ordinal regression improves out-of-sample drive-level prediction.