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JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series

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abstract

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

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representative citing papers

JAPAN: Joint Adaptive Prediction Areas with Normalising-Flows

stat.ML · 2025-05-29 · conditional · novelty 5.0

JAPAN constructs conformal prediction sets by thresholding normalizing-flow density estimates, yielding valid, compact, possibly disjoint regions with lower area than residual-based baselines.

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  • JAPAN: Joint Adaptive Prediction Areas with Normalising-Flows stat.ML · 2025-05-29 · conditional · none · ref 14 · internal anchor

    JAPAN constructs conformal prediction sets by thresholding normalizing-flow density estimates, yielding valid, compact, possibly disjoint regions with lower area than residual-based baselines.