Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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The Most Massive Binary Black Hole Detections and the Identification of Population Outliers
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Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
Spectral-siren H0 constraints from GWTC-4.0 binary black holes remain robust when the mass spectrum is permitted to evolve with redshift at current detector sensitivity.
B-spline agnostic reconstruction of binary black hole masses from GWTC-4.0 reveals multiple features and a logarithmic hierarchy that impacts Hubble constant measurements, with a low-mass subpopulation isolation method to mitigate systematics.
Population-informed hierarchical parameter estimation is required for unbiased astrophysical interpretation of gravitational-wave events rather than using standard individual posteriors with reference priors.
The high mass and high spin magnitudes inferred for GW231123 using NRSur7dq4 are robust to waveform systematics and Gaussian noise.
GWKokab is a new modular JAX framework that uses normalizing flow samplers for efficient inference on subpopulations of compact binary mergers.
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.
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Posterior Predictive Checks for Gravitational-wave Populations: Limitations and Improvements
Maximum-likelihood-based posterior predictive checks detect model misspecification better than event-level versions for uncertain spin tilts, but current detector sensitivity limits their power; the Gaussian Component Spins model underpredicts high spin magnitudes and overpredicts anti-aligned tilts
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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Gravitational-wave constraints on $H_0$ are robust to (putative) redshift evolution in the binary black hole mass spectrum at current sensitivity
Spectral-siren H0 constraints from GWTC-4.0 binary black holes remain robust when the mass spectrum is permitted to evolve with redshift at current detector sensitivity.
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Emergent structure in the binary black hole mass distribution and implications for population-based cosmology
B-spline agnostic reconstruction of binary black hole masses from GWTC-4.0 reveals multiple features and a logarithmic hierarchy that impacts Hubble constant measurements, with a low-mass subpopulation isolation method to mitigate systematics.
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Gravitational-wave astronomy requires population-informed parameter estimation
Population-informed hierarchical parameter estimation is required for unbiased astrophysical interpretation of gravitational-wave events rather than using standard individual posteriors with reference priors.
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The impact of waveform systematics and Gaussian noise on the interpretation of GW231123
The high mass and high spin magnitudes inferred for GW231123 using NRSur7dq4 are robust to waveform systematics and Gaussian noise.
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An Implementation to Identify the Properties of Multiple Population of Gravitational Wave Sources
GWKokab is a new modular JAX framework that uses normalizing flow samplers for efficient inference on subpopulations of compact binary mergers.
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Inferring the properties of a population of compact binaries in presence of selection effects
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.