Lattice QCD yields the NLO HVP contribution to muon g-2 as -101.57(26)stat(54)syst ×10^{-11}, 1.4σ below the 2025 White Paper estimate and twice as precise.
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The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model: an update
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abstract
We present the current Standard Model (SM) prediction for the muon anomalous magnetic moment, $a_\mu$, updating the first White Paper (WP20) [1]. The pure QED and electroweak contributions have been further consolidated, while hadronic contributions continue to be responsible for the bulk of the uncertainty of the SM prediction. Significant progress has been achieved in the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution using both the data-driven dispersive approach as well as lattice-QCD calculations, leading to a reduction of the uncertainty by almost a factor of two. The most important development since WP20 is the change in the estimate of the leading-order hadronic-vacuum-polarization (LO HVP) contribution. A new measurement of the $e^+e^-\to\pi^+\pi^-$ cross section by CMD-3 has increased the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution to a level that makes it impossible to combine the results in a meaningful way. At the same time, the attainable precision of lattice-QCD calculations has increased substantially and allows for a consolidated lattice-QCD average of the LO HVP contribution with a precision of about 0.9%. Adopting the latter in this update has resulted in a major upward shift of the total SM prediction, which now reads $a_\mu^\text{SM} = 116\,592\,033(62)\times 10^{-11}$ (530 ppb). When compared against the current experimental average based on the E821 experiment and runs 1-6 of E989 at Fermilab, one finds $a_\mu^\text{exp} - a_\mu^\text{SM} =38(63)\times 10^{-11}$, which implies that there is no tension between the SM and experiment at the current level of precision. The final precision of E989 (127 ppb) is the target of future efforts by the Theory Initiative. The resolution of the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution will be a key element in this endeavor.
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Lattice QCD gives a_μ^{hvp,nlo} = (-101.57 ± 0.60) × 10^{-11} at 0.6% precision, 1.4σ below the 2025 White Paper estimate and in 4.6σ tension with pre-CMD-3 data-driven results.
Proposal to use muon trident process with HEMERA detector on 10^18 TeV muons to extend B-factory and (g-2)μ bounds on leptophilic scalar couplings by over an order of magnitude.
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A lattice QCD+QED strategy is outlined for calculating isospin-breaking effects in inclusive tau decays to support high-precision HVP contributions to muon g-2.
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A general framework quantifies correlation-induced uncertainties in precision data combinations and applies it to e+e- to hadrons cross sections for muon g-2 HVP determinations.
A 10 TeV muon collider could improve existing bounds on muon-Higgs-gauge and muon-top interactions by up to an order of magnitude over current limits and FCC-ee projections.
Disperon QED is a new technique that feeds experimental data into higher-order QED loop calculations in Monte Carlo generators via dispersion relations and threshold subtraction.
PrecisionSM is a new annotated database of low-energy e+e- hadronic cross sections for use in data-driven calculations of the muon anomalous magnetic moment a_mu.
This work provides a comprehensive analysis of light new physics contributions to tau lepton dipole moments, detailing interpretations of asymmetry measurements for spin-0 and spin-1 bosons, their decoupling to the EFT limit, and a case study of a tauphilic vector boson at Belle II.
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