A first-passage time model produces the law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star) that predicts grokking delays with 17.7% MAPE on held-out AdamW runs after calibrating two parameters on one cell.
Naive computations using E[bm/ √ bv]̸=E[bm]/ p E[bv]are essential; the ratio of expectations differs significantly from the expectation of the ratio
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First-Passage Prediction of Grokking Delay: ACalibrated Law under AdamW with Causal Validation
A first-passage time model produces the law T_grok - T_mem = (1 / 2 kappa_LL eta lambda) log(V_mem / V_star) that predicts grokking delays with 17.7% MAPE on held-out AdamW runs after calibrating two parameters on one cell.