Evidence-informed belief updates make Bayesian surprise non-stationary in LLM hypothesis search, with embedding-based RAG identifying 37.5% spurious static surprisals and modified search (filtering plus diversity) yielding 30.62% higher accumulated non-stationary surprisal across five domains.
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Evidence-Informed LLM Beliefs for Continual Scientific Discovery
Evidence-informed belief updates make Bayesian surprise non-stationary in LLM hypothesis search, with embedding-based RAG identifying 37.5% spurious static surprisals and modified search (filtering plus diversity) yielding 30.62% higher accumulated non-stationary surprisal across five domains.