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Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Masson-Delmotte, V ., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S

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Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe

physics.ao-ph · 2026-01-09 · unverdicted · novelty 6.0

A non-stationary Markov process with bivariate extreme value theory attributes full heatwave time series over Europe to anthropogenic forcing via likelihood ratios between ERA5 and CMIP6 runs, finding strong evidence since the 1970s but no signal beyond mean temperature increase.

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  • Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe physics.ao-ph · 2026-01-09 · unverdicted · none · ref 27

    A non-stationary Markov process with bivariate extreme value theory attributes full heatwave time series over Europe to anthropogenic forcing via likelihood ratios between ERA5 and CMIP6 runs, finding strong evidence since the 1970s but no signal beyond mean temperature increase.