Using three extreme-outcome gambling problems, the paper finds that most people prefer the certain option and argues that time-averaged wealth growth, not expected value, drives these choices.
Advances in prospect theory: Cu- mulative representation of uncertainty
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Behavioral Biases and Nonadditive Dynamics in Risk Taking: An Experimental Investigation
Using three extreme-outcome gambling problems, the paper finds that most people prefer the certain option and argues that time-averaged wealth growth, not expected value, drives these choices.