Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.
When will ai exceed human performance? evidence from ai experts.Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 62:729–754
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Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence
Introduces the CUSP benchmark across 4760 events and finds frontier AI models can pick plausible directions but fail to predict whether or when scientific advances will occur, with performance varying by domain and insensitive to training cutoffs.